Uncertainty analysis method of marine environment design parameter calculation model

Abstract

The invention discloses an uncertainty analysis method for a marine environment design parameter calculation model, and the method comprises the steps: determining the uncertainty of the number of observation samples and the uncertainty of the dispersion degree of the observation samples, and enabling the sum of the uncertainty of the number of the observation samples and the uncertainty of the dispersion degree of the observation samples to serve as the random uncertainty of the calculation model; determining the uncertainty of the reckoning model and the parameter estimation uncertainty of the reckoning model, and taking the sum of the uncertainty of the reckoning model and the parameter estimation uncertainty of the reckoning model as the cognitive uncertainty of the reckoning model; and taking the sum of the random uncertainty and the cognitive uncertainty as the overall uncertainty of the reckoning model, and measuring the uncertainty of the reckoning model based on the uncertainty to realize uncertainty analysis. According to the method, the overall uncertainty of the multi-element model can be analyzed, and a certain factor causing the uncertainty of the multi-element model can also be analyzed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of model uncertainty analysis, in particular to an uncertainty analysis method for a marine environment design parameter estimation model. Background technique [0002] Marine environmental design parameters are the basis of marine engineering design and construction. Since various marine environmental elements are often not independent but have certain correlations, researchers have paid more and more attention to the use of multivariate probability models to estimate marine environmental design parameters. However, in the process of calculating marine environment design parameters, the selection of different data sampling methods, model distribution forms and parameter estimation methods makes the calculation results have greater uncertainty. Considering these uncertain factors in the design process of marine engineering helps to ensure the safety of engineering structures. [0003] However, in the case of short-t...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to overcome the defects in the prior art and provide an uncertainty analysis method for the estimation model of marine environment design parameters, which can solve the shortcomings of the traditional uncertainty calculation method in the case of small samples, and can not only evaluate the multivariate The overall uncertainty of the model can also be analyzed for a certain factor that causes the uncertainty of the multivariate model

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