Data processing method, device and equipment applied to severe convective weather forecast by radar and medium

Abstract

The invention provides a data processing method and device applied to radar forecast severe convective weather, equipment and a medium. The data processing method comprises the following steps: determining a historical forecast instance data set according to a historical forecast output data set and a historical radar observation base data set; on the basis of the current forecast output data set, obtaining the variance of the individual similar physical quantity of each historical forecast individual in the historical forecast individual data set; and processing the data set of the variance of the individual similar physical quantity of each historical forecast individual so as to screen a plurality of historical similar forecast individuals in the historical forecast individual data set, and the plurality of historical similar forecast individuals are used for realizing radar combined reflectivity objective correction forecast applied to radar forecast severe convective weather. Therefore, according to the method disclosed by the invention, the similarity principle is adopted, and a set of radar combined reflectivity objective correction forecasting method which is based on numerical mode output data and has relatively long forecasting time efficiency is developed.

Description

technical field [0001] The present disclosure relates to the technical fields of computer technology and weather forecasting, and in particular, to a data processing method, apparatus, device, medium and computer program product applied to radar forecasting of strong convective weather. Background technique [0002] Strong convective weather such as thunderstorms has a strong combined radar reflectivity (also called radar echo), so people usually predict the development and change of strong convective weather by detecting the development and movement of radar echoes. Thunderstorms are highly sudden, destructive, short-lived, localized, and difficult to forecast. At present, the core forecasting method is nowcasting technology, which relies on weather radar for now-extrapolated forecasting, but its forecast validity is only 2 hours. The effective forecast time is about 30 minutes, and it cannot provide long-term forecasts from 0 to 72 hours. It can only forecast the range of ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

This kind of forecasting technology can predict the "presence or absence" of strong convective weather such as thunderstorms in the future, but it still cannot predict the occurrence and disappearance of thunderstorms.

Due to the locality of the critical value of the convective index, the critical value is effective in a certain area, and the effect of transplanting it to other areas is significantly reduced or even invalid

In addition, due to the different initial fields and physical parameterization schemes adopted by different models, the critical value of convective index calculated by them will also be significantly different.

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