Method of creating production plan of demand variation input type and method of creating production plan minimizing risk of demand variations

a production plan and input type technology, applied in the field of creating production plans of demand variation input types and methods of creating production plans minimizing demand variation risk, can solve the problems of shortening the time required for materials procurement, affecting the amount of sales, and affecting the quality of materials, so as to minimize the risk of demand variation and maximize the achievement ratio
US20050222888A1Inactive Publication Date: 2005-10-06HITACHI LTD
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
US · United States
Patent Type
Applications(United States)
Current Assignee / Owner
HITACHI LTD
Publication Date
2005-10-06
Estimated Expiration
Not applicable · inactive patent

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Abstract

A production plan is created so as to minimize risk of demand variations. Forecasted values of amounts of requests are entered for each different item of products, markets, dates, past accuracy of demand forecasts, and order achievements at the time when the plan is created. Scenario information is created in which assumable amounts of request for each different item of the products, markets, and dates and probabilities at which the amounts of requests agree with actual amounts of requests are defined. Management indexes are found from the amount of stockout and amount of stock calculated in each different scenario, based on the scenario information, target values of the management indexes, and information on strongpoints. An amount of production that maximizes the achievement ratios of the management ratios to their targets within the ranges of supplied materials and within the range of the production capacity is calculated by an optimization algorithm.
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Description

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION

[0001] The present invention relates in general to the forecasting of a number of products required by the market before a demand for such products is established, the ordering of materials for the products, and the manufacture of the products; and, more particularly, the invention relates to a technique associated with a method of creating a production plan that minimizes the managerial risk caused by out-of-stock and overstock conditions created by errors in forecasting the demand for a product at the time when the materials are ordered.

[0002] In a manufacturing industry where speculative productions are performed, the number of ordered products is forecasted before an order for the product is established. Then, the materials are ordered. Generally, a long time of more than one month is required to procure the materials. Therefore, the amount forecasted at the time when the materials are ordered may be different from the actual demand. Where the actual...

Claims

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