Solar wing spreading reliability estimation method based on multilevel gray comprehensive model

Abstract

The invention discloses a solar wing spreading reliability estimation method based on a multilevel gray comprehensive model. The method comprises the following steps: determining a reliability estimation index set, and determining an index grade; organizing experts to score the index set; establishing an evaluation matrix, and determining an evaluation grey class; computing weight of each factor by using a matter element method and an analytic hierarchy process; computing a grey evaluation coefficient; and outputting a comprehensive evaluation result. The method provided by the invention is applied to the reliability estimation on a small sample and a limited information experiment object, and can accurately estimate the solar wing spreading reliability. The method has the advantages that the reliability factor can be layered, and the analytic hierarchy process is combined with the matter element method to determine the weight of the reliability factor, and the comprehensive estimation result is intuitive, objective and credible.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a reliability evaluation method for small sample and poor information experimental objects, in particular to a solar wing deployment reliability test evaluation method based on a multi-level gray comprehensive model. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of aerospace technology, the structure of spacecraft is becoming more and more complex, and its functions are increasing. Various mechanisms are required to complete various tasks. If the solar wings cannot be deployed normally, it will cause disastrous consequences and cause heavy losses to national property. However, due to the high cost of the solar wing mechanism, it is impossible to conduct large-scale experiments. Gray evaluation is good at dealing with poor information systems, it can model, predict and evaluate under the condition of short data and little information. Gray system theory is a good mathematical tool for uncertain problems with little ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] Purpose of the invention: In order to solve the reliability evaluation problem of solar wing deployment under the uncertainty of less data, small samples, incomplete information and lack of experience, on the basis of absorbing the advantages of gray system theory, it is proposed to divide the reliability elements into layers , and use the analytic hierarchy process, combined with the matter-element method to determine the weight of each reliability factor, thereby improving the objectivity of each weight index, forming a reliability based on a multi-level, gray comprehensive evaluation model that can solve small sample data. sex assessment method

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