Short-term load prediction method

Abstract

The invention provides a short-term load prediction method. The short-term load prediction method comprises the following steps: acquiring a value of a precast weather factor of a to-be-predicted date and a value of a weather factor of a plurality of historical dates; correcting the value of the precast weather factor of the to-be-predicted date and the value of the real weather factor; acquiring an electric network load value of a plurality of historical dates and short-term load prediction data, carrying out the comparison, and solving the error; fitting the corrected value of the real weather factor of a plurality of historical dates and the electric net load value to obtain a relation model; utilizing the error of the electric network load value and the short-term load prediction data to correct the relation model; predicting the electric network load of the to-be-predicted date according to the corrected relation model. Since the accumulation effect of the weather factor and the error of the historical short-term load prediction data and the real electric network load data are considered in the method, the prediction precision of the electric network load can be further improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power system load forecasting, and more specifically relates to a short-term load forecasting method. Background technique [0002] Power system short-term load forecasting is an important part of load forecasting and the basis for realizing safe and economical operation of the power system, especially in power market transactions. The higher the accuracy of load forecasting, the more beneficial it is to improve the utilization rate of power generation equipment and the effectiveness of economic dispatch; on the contrary, when the load forecasting error is large, it will not only cause a lot of operating costs and profit losses, but even affect the reliability of power system operation. balance of supply and demand in electricity and electricity markets. [0003] Whether it is the traditional forecasting method or the modern method, after obtaining the historical change law of the forecast object, they e...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The higher the accuracy of load forecasting, the more beneficial it is to improve the utilization rate of power generation equipment and the effectiveness of economic dispatch; on the contrary, when the load forecasting error is large, it will not only cause a lot of operating costs and profit losses, but even affect the reliability of power system operation. Balance of supply and demand in sex and electricity markets

Images