Method for predicting total energy consumption on the basis of fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting the total energy consumption on the basis of a fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient. According to the method, the research limitation caused by fluctuations and incomparability of traditional energy consumption elasticity coefficients is overcome, the fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient is adopted, the relation between the fixed base energy elasticity coefficient and an industrial structure is considered, a prediction model for the fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient is built, and then the total energy consumption in the future years can be predicted. The method comprises the steps of obtaining GDP, CPI and total energy consumption data of historical years, defining the fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient, and calculating the fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient value and the tertiary industrial added value proportion of the historical years; building the prediction model of the fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient; calculating the total energy consumption of a predictive period. According to the method, the fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient is predicted, then the total energy consumption in the future years is predicted, medium and long energy planning is facilitated, and the energy-saving policy is reasonably formulated.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of energy consumption forecasting, in particular to a method for forecasting total energy consumption based on a fixed-base energy consumption elasticity coefficient. Background technique [0002] Economic development is a process of continuous adjustment of industrial structure, which is inseparable from energy consumption, and different industries depend on energy in different degrees. In 2005, Shi Faqi analyzed the changes and causes of energy consumption elasticity coefficient since my country's reform and opening up, and pointed out that factors such as the international market environment, the development of high-energy-consuming industries, industrial structure, energy utilization efficiency, and residential energy consumption will all affect energy consumption. modulus of elasticity. Deng Jiang and Wu Jianbo pointed out in 2005 that the main influencing factor of my country's energy elasticity coeffi...

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Problems solved by technology

The research of the above-mentioned scholars shows that there is a close relationship between the industrial structure and the elastic coefficient of energy consumption, and the change of the industrial structure will affect the change of the elastic coefficient of energy consumption; at the same time, the change of the elastic coefficient of traditional energy consumption is not stable in time series

However, most of these studies proceeded from a theoretical point of view and carried out qualitative analysis without in-depth quantitative analysis.

[0003] In addition, the calculation of the traditional energy consumption elasticity coefficient is adjusted on a 5-year cycle. In a longer cycle (such as 10 years, 20 years), the energy consumption elasticity coefficients of different years are not comparable due to the influence of price factors. , so it is not stable in time series

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