Risk analyzing method based on Monte-Carlo simulation solution dynamic fault tree model

A dynamic fault tree and risk analysis technology, applied in the field of system security and risk analysis, can solve the problems that cannot truly reflect the change of component failure rate, cannot perform risk estimation, and has limited application of complex systems

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-07-15
BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

Although previous researchers have proposed various improvement methods, their application to complex systems with a large number of states is still limited.
In addition, when the dynamic fault tree model is transformed into a Markov model, when using the analytical method to solve it, the failure rate of the components can only be assumed to be constan

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  • Risk analyzing method based on Monte-Carlo simulation solution dynamic fault tree model
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  • Risk analyzing method based on Monte-Carlo simulation solution dynamic fault tree model

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[0048] Those skilled in the art will understand that unless otherwise stated, the singular forms "a", "an", "said" and "the" used herein may also include plural forms. It should be further understood that the word "comprising" used in the description of the present invention refers to the presence of said features, integers, steps, operations, elements and / or components, but does not exclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, Integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and / or groups thereof. It will be understood that when an element is referred to as being "connected" or "coupled" to another element, it can be directly connected or coupled to the other element or intervening elements may also be present. Additionally, "connected" or "coupled" as used herein may include wirelessly connected or coupled. As used herein, the term "and / or" includes any and all combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.

[0049] Those skilled in the ar...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a quantitative analyzing method based on a Monte-Carlo simulation solution dynamic fault tree model. The method comprises the steps of establishing the dynamic fault tree model for a system at first, then using assembly fault probability data to carry out fault probability parameter dynamic estimation to serve as input values of dynamic fault tree operation, using a Monte-Carlo method to simulate the dynamic fault tree model and obtaining the fault probability distribution analyzing data and the assembly importance analyzing data of the system according to the simulation solution dynamic fault tree model. The risk analyzing method can effectively estimate risks of complex systems with large state quantity, can obtain the importance analyzing data of system assemblies and can effectively analyze risks of situations with unknown fault rates and situations with changeable fault rates.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of system safety and risk analysis, and in particular relates to a risk analysis method for solving a dynamic fault tree based on Monte Carlo simulation. Background technique [0002] With the continuous popularization of computer technology, various control systems are playing an increasingly important role in various industries, such as flight control systems, train control systems, production control systems, etc. Due to the importance of the control system, the safety and reliability of the system is particularly important, and the accurate analysis of the risks faced by the system is of great significance to the development and safe operation of the system. [0003] For example, thanks to the rapid development of computer technology, electronic technology and control technology, the train control system has obtained good development opportunities. At present, the CTCS-3 communication-based train control...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 牛儒苗祚雨唐涛马慧茹
Owner BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIV
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