Bus load prediction algorithm based on similarity matching of multiple uncertain factors

Abstract

The invention discloses a bus load prediction algorithm based on similarity matching of multiple uncertain factors. A correlation factor mapping base is constructed firstly; similarity of all historical days to a day to be predicted is calculated by performing mode matching analysis on recent d days of historical sampling data, and similarity of all the historical days is ordered; and the top n days are selected to act as similar days, and virtual bus load is predicted, based on which all industry load of the prediction day is split. The system load prediction algorithm considering influence of meteorological factors, week types, change of operation modes and other correlation factors is adopted on the basis that the industry load characteristics are parsed by the factors allocated point by point, the key user bus load nodes influencing the whole network load are searched, the characteristic change law of various load components of a power grid is elaborately mastered, load prediction hierarchical management is enhanced, and thus scientific and refinement level of load prediction can be comprehensively enhanced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a prediction algorithm, in particular to a bus load prediction algorithm based on similarity matching of multiple uncertain factors. Background technique [0002] Compared with system load forecasting, bus load forecasting has the following characteristics: (1) The base of bus load forecasting is small, and the load carried may be a single load type or a combination of several load types; In other words, although its load characteristics are obvious, the load changes may be large, and it is difficult to grasp the load level of each period, such as the impact load of a steel plant; (2) There are a large number of buses in the system, and each bus has its own characteristics , it is impossible to analyze one by one; (3) Due to the influence of user behavior in the power supply area, the load stability of the bus is poor, and it is prone to sudden changes; (4) Some buses are easily affected by small power generation, load transfer...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The traditional distribution factor method is a proportional allocation from a macro perspective, lacks micro analysis, and cannot fully explore the characteristics of the bus load itself. It lacks an effective treatment method for bus load changes caused by changes in maintenance, transfer, etc., so the prediction accuracy is not good. High, unable to meet the needs of refined management

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