The invention discloses a
system failure early warning method based on a
baseline model and the Bayesian factor. The
system failure early warning method based on the
baseline model and the Bayesian factor can be applied to a dynamic
complex system and particularly applied to
early detection and warning of
aerospace vehicle equipment failure. The method includes: using the multivariate state
estimation technique to excavate the
system 'individuation'
baseline model on the basis of system state
monitoring data; and using an actual measurement value of a system
state parameter to subtract a baseline value so as to obtain a deviation value of a
state parameter, analyzing a deviation value sequence by the aid of a Bayesian
factor method, monitoring abnormalities of a
sequence structure, and timely giving out failure early warning. The
system failure early warning method based on the baseline model and the Bayesian factor solves the problems that dynamic
complex system performance parameter deviation value dispersion is large, failure early characteristics are easily buried in
noise, warning can be given out at the early stage of
system failure, and sensitivity and robustness of the
monitoring system are improved. Besides, the baseline model is easy to implement from the perspective of
engineering, and the method is high in university and capable of meeting the requirements of the dynamic system on real-time monitoring.