The invention relates to the technical field of
population prediction, and discloses a
population prediction method and device based on combination of an ARIMA model and a
queue element method. The method comprises the steps of obtaining historical migration
population data of a to-be-predicted region, determining a difference order through ADF test, preliminarily determining the range of an autoregression order and a
moving average order by using an autocorrelation function and a partial autocorrelation function, and constructing an ARIMA model; the optimized ARIMA model is adopted to fit historical migration
population data, a migration population prediction result is obtained, and migration
population data of each age group in the target prediction time period is output in combination with
age structure data of
floating population of the reference year; taking the migration
population data of each age group as input parameters of migration population in a
queue element method; according to a preset sum growth rate, selecting a western mode of a numeral-demann region model life table as a death model; and setting the average
life expectancy according to a preset birth ratio, and realizing permanent resident population prediction of the to-be-predicted region.