The invention provides a
wind power ultra-short-term power prediction method suitable for a
microclimate environment, and the method comprises the steps: partitioning a
wind power plant, optimizing a parameter group of a bidirectional long-short-
term memory network through employing a
Bayesian algorithm, deeply mining the deep features of historical measured
wind speed data and historical measured power data of each region through employing the bidirectional long-short-
term memory network, and carrying out the prediction of the
wind power ultra-short-term power. The historical actually-measured
wind speed data are fused by using anemometer
tower data and meteorological
station actually-measured data, so that the accuracy of the actually-measured
wind speed is improved; obtaining theoretical prediction power based on historical
numerical weather forecast data by using a deep neural
network model; wherein the historical
numerical weather forecast data is firstly fused by using multi-source
numerical weather forecast data, then the fused numerical weather forecast generates high-resolution numerical weather forecast of wind speed, temperature,
wind direction,
humidity and air pressure of the wind power
plant through a statistical
downscaling method, and the numerical weather forecast of wind speed, temperature,
wind direction,
humidity and air pressure of the wind power
plant is obtained through iterative optimization. And determining a first weight and a second weight corresponding to each time scale at the current moment in the prediction result in real time, further determining a final power prediction result of one partition by combining the two prediction powers, and then adding to obtain a power prediction result of the whole wind power plant. In this way, the ultra-short-term power prediction precision of each time scale in a
microclimate environment, especially the ultra-short-term power prediction precision of a large time scale, can be obviously improved.