The invention discloses a Bayesian statistical
traceability method for discharging
industrial waste water exceeding the standard of
sewage pipe network, It includes: 1. Random generation of the
initial point (
img file = 'DEST_PATH_IMAGE002. TIF' wi= '17' he= '19' / ) in the range of the
prior information of the unknown parameters; 2, simulate that
time series of
pollutant concentration of the current parameter (
img file = 'DEST_PATH_IMAGE004. TIF' wi= '16' he= '18' / ) correspond to the monitoring point, The
posterior probability density of unknown parameters (
img file = 'DEST_PATH_IMAGE006. TIF'wi= '45' he= '20' / ) was obtained by comparing with the actual
monitoring data. 3, generate candidate parameters accord to that suggested distribution (img file= 'DEST_PATH_IMAGE008. TIF' wi= '17' he='15' / ), (img file= '928204DEST_PATH_IMAGE008. TIF' wi= '17' he= '15' / ), The
posterior probability density of unknown parameters (img file = 'DEST_PATH_IMAGE010. TIF' wi= '47' he= '19' / ) is obtained bycomparing the likelihood degree with the actual
monitoring data, 4, extract a random number (img file = 'DEST_PATH_IMAGE012. TIF' wi= '11' he= '13' / ), jud whether that candidate value is accepted ornot, outputting an accepted value and a
posterior probability density; 5, repeat steps 3 and 4 until that iteration is complete. The invention has the advantages of effectively narrowing the value range of unknown parameters, utilizing the characteristics of the MCMC sampling method, reducing the
workload and the sampling time under the condition of ensuring the rationality of the sampling, and improving the
traceability efficiency.