Method for predicting transmission line icing thickness

A technology of ice thickness and prediction method, which is applied in the direction of measuring devices, electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, etc., to achieve the effects of high measurement accuracy, strong real-time performance, and reduced failure losses

Inactive Publication Date: 2010-05-19
HUNAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

However, based on the differential time series autoregressive model, Bayesian statistical inference is used

Method used

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  • Method for predicting transmission line icing thickness
  • Method for predicting transmission line icing thickness
  • Method for predicting transmission line icing thickness

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Embodiment Construction

[0032] see figure 1 , figure 1 For the implementation of the operation flow chart. During the ice and snow disaster in 2008, 30 ice thickness data of 220KV transmission line Chenzhou station were collected at different times to form a time series of transmission line ice thickness [z].

[0033] Use Matlab7.6 to do differential processing on the transmission line ice thickness time series [z]. The statement of the differential processing is: y=diff(z), to obtain the transmission line ice thickness difference time series [y]; then from the time series [ y] to extract a new set of time series [x], the sampling statement is: x=randsample(y, m, true); then use the maximum likelihood method to estimate the value of the autoregressive parameter θ of the time series [x] , the statement of maximum likelihood estimation is: θ=ar(x, p).

[0034] Repeat the above process 50 times to obtain 50 sets of estimated values ​​of θ, and then use the estimated θ values ​​to calculate the expect...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting transmission line icing thickness, which comprises the following steps: constructing a difference time sequence by utilizing historical data of transmission line icing thickness; establishing an autoregressive metering model for the difference time sequence; estimating a model parameter by a Bayesian statistical inference method; and finally calculating a predicted value of the transmission line icing thickness. In the method, the autoregressive metering model parameter is estimated by the Bayesian statistical inference method so as to predict the transmission line icing thickness dynamically, and the method has the characteristics of high precision and strong real time and solves the technical problem of predicting the transmission line icing thickness under the condition of low-temperature snow and ice storms disasters radically.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the ice coating thickness of transmission lines, which is particularly suitable for analyzing and predicting the ice coating thickness of transmission lines under low-temperature rain, snow and freezing disasters. Background technique [0002] In low-temperature, rainy, snowy and freezing weather, transmission lines are easily covered with ice, which causes the transmission line to gallop under the action of wind, resulting in disconnection of the transmission line, accidents of tower collapse, and failure of the transmission system, which in turn affects the dispatching mode and cut-off of the entire power system. Load control, safe and stable operation of the power system and reliable power supply for users. In severe winter and early spring, low temperature, rain, snow and freezing weather often occur in most parts of my country. In January 2008, the continuous low-temperature rain, snow and freezing...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G01B21/08G06F19/00
Inventor 赖明勇张新华杨洪明陈安裕徐文军
Owner HUNAN UNIV
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