Power transmission and transformation project cost risk assessment and forecasting method based on BP neural algorithm
A technology of engineering cost and BP nerve, applied in computing, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of "three super" phenomenon, loopholes in cost management, loss of control of investment goals of power transmission and transformation projects, etc., and achieves a wide range of applications. Effect
Inactive Publication Date: 2016-02-17
JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO +3
View PDF2 Cites 8 Cited by
- Summary
- Abstract
- Description
- Claims
- Application Information
AI Technical Summary
Problems solved by technology
However, with the rapid development of power grid construction, some problems in the current construction of power transmission and transformation projects have also been highlighted during the construction process, such as large investment, low efficiency, loopholes in cost management, etc.
[0003] Among them, cost management is faced with a complex and changeable
Method used
the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
View moreImage
Smart Image Click on the blue labels to locate them in the text.
Smart ImageViewing Examples
Examples
Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test
Embodiment Construction
[0041] Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing of description, the present invention will be further described.
[0042] The present invention provides a method for evaluating and predicting the cost risk of power transmission and transformation projects based on BP neural algorithm, comprising the following steps:
[0043] 1) Collect the risk indicators of the target projects in the completed power transmission and transformation projects, use the BP neural algorithm to analyze the risk indicators that affect the cost, and determine the cost risk indicators to form a cost risk indicator system.
[0044] The target project of this embodiment is a substation project. For example, the cost risk index system of a completed 220KV substation project is obtained from a power company, as shown in Table 1.
[0045]
[0046] Table 1
[0047] 2) Collect the cost sample data generated by the target project in the completed power transmission and transformation project, and cla...
the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More PUM
Login to View More Abstract
The invention discloses a power transmission and transformation project cost risk assessment and forecasting method based on a BP neural algorithm. The method comprises the steps: utilizing a BP neural algorithm to perform index analysis for a risk index influencing the cost, and forming a cost risk index system; collecting the generated cost sample data, and classifying and summarizing the cost sample data according to the cost risk index system; using a data normalization function to carry out normalization processing, acquiring the grouped sample data, and calculating the values of expectation; creating a BP neural network function, performing data training for every group of sample data and the values of expectation to obtain a power transmission and transformation project cost risk assessment and forecasting model, and forecasting a new power transmission and transformation project cost risk; and after completing the model training, utilizing an expert forecasting method to perform cost data forecasting for a new power transmission and transformation project for evaluating a new power transmission and transformation project cost risk. The power transmission and transformation project cost risk assessment and forecasting method based on a BP neural algorithm can accurately and reliably evaluate the cost risk of a new power transmission and transformation project, and provides active guidance for a project investment and construction side.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for evaluating and predicting cost risk, in particular to a method for evaluating and predicting cost risk of power transmission and transformation projects based on BP neural algorithm, which belongs to the field of dynamically predicting project cost. Background technique [0002] In recent years, my country's rapid economic development has led to a rapid increase in electricity demand. Only by vigorously developing power transmission and transformation projects can the tight power supply situation be alleviated. However, with the rapid development of power grid construction, some problems in the current construction of power transmission and transformation projects have also been highlighted during its construction, such as large investment, low efficiency, and loopholes in cost management. [0003] Among them, cost management is faced with a complex and changeable environment and various uncertain factors. These un...
Claims
the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More Application Information
Patent Timeline
Login to View More IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q50/06
Inventor 刘毅刘婷凌俊斌王景龙王朋方向张旺孙海森黄其昱吴蓉
Owner JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO