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Short-term electricity market forecasting system and method

A technology of power market and forecasting method, which is applied in the field of short-term power market forecasting system, can solve the problems that the forecasting method is not accurate enough and cannot meet the requirements of short-term power market forecasting accuracy, and achieve the effect of avoiding subjective influence and reducing forecasting risk

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-08-10
JINING POWER SUPPLY CO OF STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER CO +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0009] However, when there are factors such as weather changes, large power user production plans, and user business expansion projects, the above prediction methods are not accurate enough to meet the existing short-term power market prediction accuracy requirements

Method used

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  • Short-term electricity market forecasting system and method
  • Short-term electricity market forecasting system and method
  • Short-term electricity market forecasting system and method

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Experimental program
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Embodiment Construction

[0040] The present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with accompanying drawing:

[0041] Obtain the historical load data of monthly electricity consumption in the power supply business area through the power grid energy management system of the power control center and store the historical load data; process the stored historical load data and draw a monthly distribution map of electricity sales over the years ,Such as figure 1 As shown, after systematically analyzing the monthly electricity sales in previous years, it is found that there is a certain change law between the monthly electricity sales and the season. Calculation method of seasonal factor. The seasonal factor forecasting method is based on the objective data of electricity sales in previous years to predict the monthly electricity sales of this year, which can effectively avoid the subjective influence of prediction accuracy and reduce the risk of prediction.

[0042] The flow chart of elect...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term electricity market forecasting system and method. The method comprises the steps of through an electric power control center power grid energy management system, acquiring historical load data of monthly electricity consumption in a power supply business region and storing the historical load data; processing the stored historical load data to make a monthly distribution map of electricity consumption over the years; according to the monthly distribution map of electricity consumption over the years, calculating an electricity consumption season factor f(M), and then determining an annual monthly electricity sale forecasting value calculation formula based on the electricity sale variation value caused by reasons other than seasonal variation; and according to the annual monthly electricity sale forecasting value calculation formula, carrying out a short-term forecast of and displaying the monthly power consumption. The invention can effectively avoid the subjective influence on the forecast accuracy and reduce the forecast risk by using a season factor forecasting method whereby the monthly electricity sale this year can be forecasted based on objective data of electricity consumption over the past years.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to electric power market prediction, in particular to a short-term electric power market prediction system and method. Background technique [0002] During the operation of the power system, the power market forecasting problem plays an important role in many power sectors. It involves many aspects such as the economical and safe operation of the power system and power market transactions. With the continuous development of the power industry and its gradual entry into the market, market forecasting plays an increasingly important role in the power industry and has become the core business of marketing and trading departments, which also affects the accuracy and stability of market forecasting Sexuality puts forward higher demands. [0003] At present, the monthly electricity consumption in the business area is closely related to the historical electricity consumption and the growth rate of electricity consumption. The predicti...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 周建全董文秀李维轩诗鹏徐永萍朱峰张彬杨艳焦
Owner JINING POWER SUPPLY CO OF STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER CO
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