Risk evaluation model-based traffic accident happening probability acquiring method and system

A risk assessment model and a traffic accident technology, which are applied in the field of obtaining the probability of occurrence of traffic accidents based on the risk assessment model, can solve the problems such as the inability to obtain the probability of occurrence of traffic accidents in real time, and achieve the effect of fast calculation.

Active Publication Date: 2017-01-25
TONGJI UNIV
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Although the above two aspects of road traffic safety research are helpful to improve the traffic safety performance of expressways and expressways and reduce the probability o...

Method used

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  • Risk evaluation model-based traffic accident happening probability acquiring method and system
  • Risk evaluation model-based traffic accident happening probability acquiring method and system
  • Risk evaluation model-based traffic accident happening probability acquiring method and system

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0064] This embodiment provides a method for obtaining the probability of traffic accidents, such as figure 1 shown, including:

[0065] S11. Establish a traffic accident risk assessment model for obtaining the probability of traffic accidents on the monitored road section according to the correlation between multiple preset accident prediction index variables and the probability of traffic accidents, and the accident prediction index variable changes with the traffic flow data of the monitored road section change with change. Specifically, the traffic flow data of the monitored road section can be collected by a flow detector arranged on each monitored road section (one entry ramp to the next exit ramp corresponds to a road section), and the traffic flow data includes the traffic flow of each lane of the monitored road section, Data such as the average speed of vehicles and the average distance between vehicles. At the same time, because the accident prediction index variab...

Embodiment 2

[0118] Obtain the processing device in the traffic accident probability system, such as image 3 shown, including:

[0119] The assessment model building unit 11 is used to establish a traffic accident risk assessment model for obtaining the probability of traffic accidents on the monitoring road section according to the correlation between a plurality of preset accident prediction index variables and the probability of occurrence of traffic accidents, and the accident prediction index variables vary with The traffic flow data of the monitoring road section changes.

[0120] The calibration unit 12 is configured to calibrate the parameters of the traffic accident risk assessment model according to the traffic flow data of the monitored road section before and after the occurrence of the traffic accident, and obtain the calibrated traffic accident risk assessment model.

[0121] The current value determining unit 13 is configured to determine the current specific value of each...

Embodiment 3

[0153] This embodiment provides a system for obtaining the probability of occurrence of traffic accidents, such as Figure 4 shown, including:

[0154] A plurality of traffic collection devices 21 are distributed in each monitored road section, and are used to collect traffic flow data of each monitored road section. Preferably, the flow collection device 21 may be a flow detector.

[0155] The processing device 22 is used to implement the method for obtaining the probability of occurrence of traffic accidents according to any one of claims 1-8, and obtains the current probability of occurrence of traffic accidents on the monitoring road section according to the traffic flow data of the monitoring road section acquired in real time or at intervals of preset time . Preferably, the processing device 22 may be a processor.

[0156] The alarm device 23 is configured to issue an alarm prompt when the current probability of occurrence of a traffic accident exceeds the preset prob...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a risk evaluation model-based traffic accident happening probability acquiring method and a system to acquire a traffic accident happening probability of a monitored road section in real time. The method comprises the following steps of: 1) constructing a traffic accident risk evaluation model according to a preset relation between multiple accident predictive index variables and the traffic accident happening probability; 2) calibrating parameters of the traffic accident risk evaluation model according to traffic flow data of the monitored road section before and after a traffic accident so as to obtain traffic accident risk evaluation model after calibration; 3) acquiring traffic flow data of the monitored road section in real time or at intervals of a preset time so as to determine a specific numerical value of each accident predictive index variable; and 4) acquiring a real-time traffic accident happening probability of the monitored road section according to the specific numerical value of each accident predictive index variable and the traffic accident risk evaluation model after calibration. Compared with the prior art, the method and the system provided by the invention have the advantages of being real-time, accurate, and universally applicable, quick in calculation and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of traffic safety, in particular to a method for acquiring the probability of occurrence of traffic accidents based on a risk assessment model. Background technique [0002] With the rapid growth of my country's economy, public transportation infrastructure such as expressways and expressways has also been developed rapidly. While bringing efficiency, speed, and convenience, it also brings negative effects such as the increase in traffic accidents. With economic and social development, increase in car ownership and road mileage, this situation will become more and more severe. [0003] Traditional road traffic safety research mainly focuses on two aspects. On the one hand, from the perspective of road safety audit, based on operational statistics, the probability of traffic accidents on expressways, expressways, etc. is obtained from the aspects of road alignment indicators, road environment, and operating sp...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G08G1/01G06F19/00
CPCG08G1/0125G16Z99/00
Inventor 王俊骅游锦明
Owner TONGJI UNIV
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