Two-stage parameter calibration method for highway traffic safety simulation analysis

Abstract

The invention discloses a two-stage parameter calibration method for highway traffic safety simulation analysis. The method comprises the steps of 10) acquiring real-time traffic flow data, road design data and weather data of a highway; 20) building a real-time accident risk prediction model and a VISSIM simulation model; 30) performing first-stage parameter calibration: calibrating parameters remarkably influencing a simulated vehicle speed change; 40) performing second-stage parameter calibration: calibrating parameters remarkably influencing a simulated real-time accident risk value; and 50) if the speed and real-time accident risk of the VISSIM simulation model reach simulation precision, indicating that the calibration is finished, otherwise, calibrating excluded parameters in the two calibration steps to improve the simulation precision. According to the two-stage parameter calibration method for the VISSIM simulation model, provided by the invention, the accident risk value is further simulated on the basis of reproducing temporal and spatial variation of traffic flow, so that the VISSIM simulation can be enabled to directly evaluate a traffic accident risk.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of traffic simulation, and relates to a method for automatic parameter calibration of highway traffic simulation by using a genetic algorithm. Background technique [0002] Microscopic simulation technology has been widely used in the field of traffic engineering, especially in the research of simulating highways with only motor vehicles as traffic components. A large number of studies have used simulation models to evaluate road traffic safety and operating effects. However, most of the simulation models established in engineering practice use the default parameter values ​​of the simulation software or the parameter values ​​determined according to the engineer's experience. The simulation model reproduces the traffic flow in time and space. The running characteristics of the traffic flow make the simulation an animation effect that does not have the purpose of evaluation. Contents of the invention [0003] Techn...

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Problems solved by technology

However, most of the simulation models established in engineering practice use the default parameter values ​​of the simulation software or the parameter values ​​determined according to the engineer's experience. The simulation model reproduces the traffic flow in time and space. The running characteristics of the traffic flow make the simulation an animation effect that does not have the purpose of evaluation

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