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Capacity confidence level evaluation method for multiple wind power plants on the basis of Copula function

A wind farm and reliability technology, applied in data processing applications, instruments, calculations, etc., can solve problems such as wind farm operation and planning impact

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-05-10
NANJING UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] At present, in-depth research is mainly conducted on the credible capacity assessment of a single wind farm. With the further development of wind resources, there will be multiple wind farms connected to the system at the same time in the same wind area, and there is a certain correlation between the output of wind farms near the spatial location. , which will have a greater impact on the operation and planning of wind farms

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  • Capacity confidence level evaluation method for multiple wind power plants on the basis of Copula function
  • Capacity confidence level evaluation method for multiple wind power plants on the basis of Copula function
  • Capacity confidence level evaluation method for multiple wind power plants on the basis of Copula function

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Embodiment Construction

[0016] combine Figure 1 to Figure 4 , the present invention at first by constructing a kind of multi-dimensional Copula function, by distribution parameter estimation method, estimates the parameter of the marginal distribution function of wind farm and the parameter in Copula function, selects optimal Copula function with the shortest distance method again, produces with conditional sampling method Multidimensional wind velocity samples with correlation. On this basis, an output-dependent assessment method for the capacity reliability of multiple wind farms is proposed, and the capacity reliability of wind farms is calculated by using the truncated method. The implementation steps of the specific optimization method are as follows:

[0017] In the first step, by considering that the wind speed variable obeys the Weibull parameter distribution model, the maximum likelihood estimation method can be used to estimate the parameter λ in the wind speed Weibull distribution i and...

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Abstract

The invention provides a capacity confidence level evaluation method for multiple wind power plants on the basis of a Copula function. The method comprises the following steps of: firstly, constructing a multidimensional Copula function to estimate the parameters of the marginal distribution functions of the wind power plants and parameters in the Copula function t hrough a distribution parameter estimation method; then, utilizing a shortest distance method to select an optimal Copula function; and utilizing a conditional sampling method to generate a multidimensional wind speed sample with correlation. On the basis, the output-related capacity confidence level evaluation method for the multiple wind power plants is put forward, and a secant method is adopted to carry out calculation to obtain the capacity confidence level of the wind power plant.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a new energy technology, in particular to a multi-wind farm capacity credibility evaluation method based on a Copula function. Background technique [0002] The output of wind farms has the characteristics of randomness and intermittency, and belongs to an uncontrollable form of power supply. [0003] The contribution to the capacity of the power system after grid connection is quite different from that of conventional units. Therefore, objectively evaluating the capacity reliability of wind farms is of great significance for long-term planning, optimal operation, and reliability evaluation of the access system. [0004] At present, in-depth research is mainly conducted on the credible capacity assessment of a single wind farm. With the further development of wind resources, there will be multiple wind farms connected to the system at the same time in the same wind area, and there is a certain correlation between the output of ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/0637G06Q50/06
Inventor 卜京张梦月杨阳田杰刘瑶秋刘馨月
Owner NANJING UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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