Probability dynamic safety assessment method in account of wind power

Abstract

The invention discloses a probability dynamic safety assessment method in account of wind power. The method mainly comprises the steps: conducting probabilistic modeling of the uncertain factors which affect the power system safety level, particularly, conducting the probabilistic modeling of the wind power and load node injection power, and conducting modeling of the component failure probability; constructing the system dynamic safety probability assessment index, and obtaining a parsing expression of the system dynamic safety probability PDS; offline calculating the system dynamic safety probability based on the safety domain parsing, particularly, calculating the hyperplane coefficient of a dynamic safety domain containing the wind power for all failures of an expected accident set, and parsing and calculating the system dynamic safety probability according to a probability model of the component failure and the parsing expression of the system dynamic safety probability and based on the dynamic safety domain containing the wind power of the hyperplane format and the Cornish-Fisher series. The method can be applied to the monitoring and control of power system safety, the comparison of planning scheme, the optimization of operation and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of grid operation planning, and in particular relates to a probabilistic dynamic security evaluation method considering wind power. Background technique [0002] In order to coordinate the relationship between economy, energy and ecological environment to achieve sustainable development, all countries in the world have jointly chosen to develop renewable energy. Renewable energy represented by wind power has been connected to the grid on a large scale, but it is greatly affected by the weather, it is difficult to achieve accurate forecasting, and it has the characteristics of volatility and intermittency, which can undergo large changes in a short period of time. When the rate is high, the uncertainty of node injection is greatly increased, which has a non-negligible impact on the safe and stable operation of the power grid. [0003] For a long time, deterministic security assessment has dominated the dispatch contro...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the large-scale grid-connection of wind power increases the uncertainty of the system and brings more uncertain factors. The limitations of the traditional deterministic security situation assessment are becoming increasingly prominent. Probabilistic security assessment is a deterministic security An important supplement to the assessment, playing a more important role

[0004] For the probabilistic dynamic safety assessment of wind power, the existing results generally use the simulation method, that is, a large number of operating points are sampled based on Monte Carlo simulation, the transient stability of the sampling points is determined based on the point-by-point method, and the probability is obtained according to the law of large numbers. indicators, but to obtain the state sample characteristics that meet the accuracy requirements, a large number of calculations are required, and it is difficult to ensure the rapidity of evaluation

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