Urban rail transit passenger flow area interlocked early-warning method

Abstract

The invention discloses an urban rail transit passenger flow area interlocked early-warning method, wherein the method comprises the following steps of acquiring data in real time and preprocessing data; performing calculation based on a historical residual analysis passenger flow short-time forecasting model according to real-time difference data for obtaining a forecasting difference of a forecasting period, and restoring according to a historical same-time monitoring value for obtaining a forecasting value of the forecasting period; calculating according to a clustering analysis method for obtaining thresholds of average speed and density, and performing comprehensive determining for obtaining a passenger flow early-warning event of each area; constructing a station monitoring area passenger flow early-warning event determining model based on a decision tree, obtaining a station passenger flow congestion risk factor and a passenger flow area early-warning factor, performing comprehensive weighting for obtaining a station comprehensive early-warning index, establishing a station early-warning event determining formula, and performing calculation for obtaining a station early-warning event grade.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of urban rail transit, and in particular relates to an urban rail transit passenger flow area linkage early warning method. Background technique [0002] The development of my country's urban rail transit is in a period of rapid development, and the urban structure, rail transit form, and passenger flow characteristics are all unstable, resulting in a prominent contradiction between supply and demand within a certain period of time, especially in the morning and evening peak network capacity. The phenomenon of stranded and crowded rail stations is prominent, and incidents of passenger falls and passenger conflicts occur from time to time, which have aroused great concern from the government, operating companies, and the public. In order to alleviate the pressure on station passenger traffic mix, Beijing Subway has adopted normalized passenger flow control at 74 stations in the morning and evening peak hours. With the o...

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Problems solved by technology

At present, the selection of flow control sites, the time range of flow control and the setting of flow control intensity in operation management mainly rely on the on-site work experience of the management department, which lacks reasonable scientific explanation and verification. When there is a sudden large passenger flow caused by an incident, due to the lack of effective passenger flow monitoring methods, passenger flow trend forecasting and early warning evaluation techniques, it is easy to miss the best disposal time and cause potential passenger flow stampede risks

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