Pavement use performance distribution condition prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses a pavement use performance distribution condition prediction method. The method sequentially comprises the following steps of (1) dividing a whole road into units, and assessing use performance of each unit of the whole road; (2) obtaining an over-the-years use performance distribution matrix according to occurrence probabilities of A, B, C, D and E in each unit of the whole road; (3) obtaining a transition probability matrix of different step lengths according to the over-the-years use performance distribution matrix; (4) obtaining state transition matrix weights of Markov chains of different step lengths according to the transition probability matrix; (5) calculating the pavement use performance distribution matrix Bn+1 of the (n+1)th year. According to the method, the steps are compact; and a pavement use performance distribution condition is further obtained based on a conventional pavement use performance index, thereby assisting a road maintenance management department to accurately master a change law of the pavement use performance distribution condition of the whole road section.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of pavement service performance analysis, and in particular relates to a method for predicting the distribution of pavement service performance. Background technique [0002] Under the combined effect of traffic load and environmental factors, the road surface will gradually be damaged to varying degrees, resulting in the continuous reduction of driving comfort and service level of the road surface. However, with the rapid development of the nation and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, the requirements for road traffic have gradually changed from accessibility to requirements for improving road service levels. Therefore, when the performance of the pavement drops to a certain level, the road maintenance management department needs to take various maintenance or reconstruction measures on the pavement to restore or improve its performance. [0003] In order to optimize the allocation o...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] At present, many countries and regions have proposed a variety of forecasting model construction methods on the basis of considering the requirements and conditions of their respective pavement management systems, and established corresponding forecasting models. The traditional forecasting methods are all for the entire expressway or Forecasting the comprehensive use condition index of a road section lacks the prediction of the distribution of the road surface use condition of the entire expressway or a certain road section, and when planning maintenance, it is not enough to only know the change trend of the comprehensive use condition of the road in the next few years

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