Nuclear power device requirement failure probability evaluation method and system

Abstract

The invention provides a nuclear power device requirement failure probability evaluation method. The method includes the following steps: counting an accumulative requirement times Nd and an accumulative requirement failure times Nf of an objective device; obtaining prior parameters [alpha] and [beta] of the objective device; on the basis of the prior parameters [alpha] and [beta] and Nd and Nf, computing posterior parameters [alpha]1 and [beta]1, and a posterior mean [gamma]1; based on the prior parameters [alpha] and [beta] and Nd and Nf, separately computing a requirement failure probability P1 of a confidence upper limit of a first set threshold and a requirement failure probability P2 of a confidence lower limit of a second set threshold of the objective device; on the basis of the P1 and P2, computing an error factor; computing a variance V; and computing a requirement failure probability Pmed of the objective device in median. The invention also provides a nuclear power device requirement failure probability evaluation system. According to the invention, the method can accurately reflect the actual situation of operation device at a nuclear power station, and can effectively help workers to evaluate and predict the stability and reliability of operation devices.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of operation and management of nuclear power equipment, and more specifically, to a method and system for evaluating failure probability of demand for nuclear power equipment. Background technique [0002] Bayesian statistics is a theory of inductive reasoning proposed by the British scholar Thomas Bayes in "On the Solution of Problems Concerning Chance", which was later developed into a systematic statistical inference method by some statisticians, called Bayesian method. All the results obtained by using this method for statistical inference constitute the content of Bayesian statistics. Statisticians who believe that the Bayesian method is the only reasonable statistical inference method form the Bayesian school in mathematical statistics, and its formation can be traced back to the 1930s. [0003] The prior distribution is a probability distribution over the population distribution parameter θ. The fundamental ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0010] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide an A method and system for evaluating the demand failure probability of nuclear power equipment by introducing general industry data as prior parameters to more accurately calculate the demand failure probability of nuclear power equipment

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