Nuclear power device requirement failure probability evaluation method and system

A technology of failure probability and demand, which is applied in the field of evaluation of failure probability of nuclear power equipment demand, can solve the problems of operating equipment stability and reliability evaluation and prediction, and cannot accurately reflect the real situation of nuclear power plant operating equipment, so as to help stability and reliability sexual effect

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-11-17
SUZHOU NUCLEAR POWER RES INST +2
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0010] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide an A method and system for evaluating the demand failure probability of nuclear power equipment by introducing general industry data as prior parameters to more accurately calculate the demand failure probability of nuclear power equipment

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  • Nuclear power device requirement failure probability evaluation method and system
  • Nuclear power device requirement failure probability evaluation method and system
  • Nuclear power device requirement failure probability evaluation method and system

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Embodiment Construction

[0050] In order to have a clearer understanding of the technical features, purposes and effects of the present invention, the specific implementation manners of the present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0051] figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the front structure of a preferred embodiment of the evaluation method and system for the demand failure probability of nuclear power equipment in the present invention. The method for evaluating the failure probability of nuclear power equipment requirements includes the following steps:

[0052] S1. Count the accumulated demand times N of the target equipment d and the cumulative number of demand failures N f ;

[0053] S2. Obtain the prior parameters α and β of the target device according to the general data in the industry;

[0054] S3, based on the prior parameters α and β and N d and N f , to calculate the posterior parameter α 1 and beta 1 , and the posterior m...

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Abstract

The invention provides a nuclear power device requirement failure probability evaluation method. The method includes the following steps: counting an accumulative requirement times Nd and an accumulative requirement failure times Nf of an objective device; obtaining prior parameters [alpha] and [beta] of the objective device; on the basis of the prior parameters [alpha] and [beta] and Nd and Nf, computing posterior parameters [alpha]1 and [beta]1, and a posterior mean [gamma]1; based on the prior parameters [alpha] and [beta] and Nd and Nf, separately computing a requirement failure probability P1 of a confidence upper limit of a first set threshold and a requirement failure probability P2 of a confidence lower limit of a second set threshold of the objective device; on the basis of the P1 and P2, computing an error factor; computing a variance V; and computing a requirement failure probability Pmed of the objective device in median. The invention also provides a nuclear power device requirement failure probability evaluation system. According to the invention, the method can accurately reflect the actual situation of operation device at a nuclear power station, and can effectively help workers to evaluate and predict the stability and reliability of operation devices.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of operation and management of nuclear power equipment, and more specifically, to a method and system for evaluating failure probability of demand for nuclear power equipment. Background technique [0002] Bayesian statistics is a theory of inductive reasoning proposed by the British scholar Thomas Bayes in "On the Solution of Problems Concerning Chance", which was later developed into a systematic statistical inference method by some statisticians, called Bayesian method. All the results obtained by using this method for statistical inference constitute the content of Bayesian statistics. Statisticians who believe that the Bayesian method is the only reasonable statistical inference method form the Bayesian school in mathematical statistics, and its formation can be traced back to the 1930s. [0003] The prior distribution is a probability distribution over the population distribution parameter θ. The fundamental ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06
CPCG06Q10/06393
Inventor 黄立军王双飞吴进瞿勐何善红凌霜寒王冯阳李欢欢魏子奇
Owner SUZHOU NUCLEAR POWER RES INST
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