Electrical interconnection integral energy system optimization operation analysis method based on probability trend

Abstract

The invention provides an electrical interconnection integral energy system optimization operation analysis method based on probability trend; the method comprises the following steps: modeling, considering couplings between models, analyzing operation modes, wherein the modes include a fixed hot point FTL mode, a fixed electric heat FEL mode, and a mixed operation FHL mode; analyzing uncertain factors, wherein the uncertain factors comprise load, wind power plant output and photovoltaic power plant output randomness; using a point estimation method to build sampling points according to distribution conditions of each random variable; using a heredity algorithm to solve the generating cost minimum cost under various operation modes, thus obtaining the generating cost statistics amount. The method applies three operation modes under the integral energy system probability trend, parses the whole system generating cost changes caused by the state variable changes under the three operation modes, calculates the whole integral energy system generating cost, searches the optimal operation mode according to the generating cost probability distribution curve under the three operation modes, and thus providing references for electric power scheduling personnel.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an integrated energy system, in particular to an analysis method for optimizing operation of an electrical interconnected integrated energy system. Background technique [0002] With the continuous improvement of industrial development and living standards of residents, energy consumption is increasing day by day, and environmental problems are becoming more and more prominent. Under this dual pressure, countries all over the world pay attention to integrated energy systems (IES). Europe is the first region to put forward the concept of IES. The fifth framework (EP5), the sixth framework (EP6) and the seventh framework (EP7) of the European Union put the research on the collaborative optimization of multiple energy sources in an important position. In 2001, the U.S. Department of Energy proposed a development plan for IES, and in 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama included the smart grid in the U.S. national strategy. In the sa...

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Problems solved by technology

There are enough researches on deterministic IES optimization operation, but few consider the optimization operation problem of IES based on probabilistic power flow

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