Quantile regression-based wind power fluctuation interval analysis method
A technology of wind power fluctuation and interval analysis, applied in wind power generation, electrical components, circuit devices, etc., can solve problems such as difficult to find distribution functions
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[0085] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with drawings and embodiments.
[0086] First, the basic principle of quantile regression is introduced, as follows:
[0087] The concept of quantile point: For a certain forecast object, at the moment to be forecast, the value can be regarded as a random variable Y, and its probability distribution function is:
[0088] F(y)=P(Y≤y), then the τ quantile of F(y) can be expressed as:
[0089]
[0090] Among them, 0<τ<1;
[0091] A set of quantile points of the predicted object at the future time t can be calculated by quantile point regression
[0092] As long as the quantile point interval is set properly, this component point can completely describe the probability distribution of the fluctuation interval of the forecast object at time t, and can effectively grasp the change status of uncertainty information; among them, y max Corresponding to the upper limit of the value range of the random va...
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