Short-term load forecasting method and system based on echo state network

An echo state network and short-term load forecasting technology, applied in forecasting, neural learning methods, biological neural network models, etc., can solve problems such as programming difficulties, poor forecasting accuracy, and inability to determine knowledge, so as to improve forecasting accuracy and accuracy , the effect of enhancing the generalization ability
CN108491982AInactive Publication Date: 2018-09-04BEIJING CHINA POWER INFORMATION TECH +2
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
BEIJING CHINA POWER INFORMATION TECH
Publication Date
2018-09-04
Estimated Expiration
Not applicable · inactive patent

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Abstract

The invention provides a short-term load forecasting method based on an echo state network, which comprises the steps of collecting historical load data and information of load influencing factors; preprocessing the historical load data; screening out similar days which are similar to a day to be forecasted by using a fuzzy clustering analysis method based on the information of the load influencing factors; building an echo state network load forecasting model based on the preprocessed historical load data of the similar days; and performing load forecasting on the day to be forecasted based on the echo state network load forecasting model. According to the invention, the load influencing factors are considered, the historical similar days are screened out, and the data of the historical similar days is used as training samples, so that the forecasting accuracy of the forecasting model is greatly improved; and meanwhile, by the forecasting model is trained by adopting an L1 / 2 norm regularization method, the generalization ability of the forecasting model is enhanced, and the accuracy of the forecasting result is further improved. The invention further discloses a short-term load forecasting system based on the echo state network.
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Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power load forecasting, in particular to a short-term load forecasting method and system based on an echo state network. Background technique

[0002] Power load forecasting is an important part of the energy management system. Short-term load forecasting not only provides guarantee for the safe and economical operation of the power system, but also is the basis for scheduling dispatching plans, power supply plans, and trading plans in the market environment.

[0003] Short-term load forecasting usually refers to forecasting within one year in the future, load forecasting in units of months, weeks, days, and hours, including load forecasting for 24 hours in the next day. Short-term load plays a vital role in the daily dispatch of power systems. It can provide important data basis for system security analysis, computer online control of power grids and basic power generation plans, and effectively promote ...

Claims

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