Modeling method based on multi-scale decomposition of wind power fluctuation

Abstract

The invention provides a modeling method based on wind power fluctuation multi-scale decomposition, comprising: according to the first wind power historical data collected in advance, analyzing the time characteristic and statistical characteristic of wind power fluctuation, so as to determine the wind power fluctuation decomposition component and the time scale corresponding to the wind power fluctuation decomposition component; According to the wind power fluctuation decomposition component and its corresponding time scale, a two-stage WMMF filter is used to decompose the wind power multi-scale fluctuation of the first wind power historical data to obtain a low-frequency trend component, an intermediate-frequency fluctuation component and a high-frequency fluctuation component. Accordingto the low frequency trend component, the intermediate frequency fluctuation component and the high frequency fluctuation component, a multi-dimensional probability model is established. Through theabove method, the multi-dimensional probability model can be established according to the fluctuation characteristics and correlation of wind power fluctuation of the original wind power time series,thus retaining the characteristics of the complete wind power fluctuation process and simulating the wind power output characteristics to the maximum extent.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of new energy power generation, in particular to a modeling method based on multi-scale decomposition of wind power fluctuations. Background technique [0002] As a renewable clean energy, wind power has a good development prospect. However, with the rapid increase of wind power grid-connected capacity, the inherent volatility and intermittency of wind power make the safe and stable operation of the power system face severe challenges. The random fluctuation characteristics of wind energy in nature determine that wind power has the characteristics of rapid fluctuation and intermittent, which makes the reliability of power system operation greatly affected after wind power is connected to the grid. The rapid development of wind power installed capacity has made the problem of wind power grid connection more and more serious, and the situation of curtailment of wind power has become more and more serious, whi...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] At present, researchers at home and abroad mainly analyze the fluctuation characteristics of wind power at different time scales from the statistical characteristics of baud quantities, and few studies have proposed modeling methods for wind power fluctuations.

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