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TDNN-based prediction method for NDVI in the grassland area of northern China

A forecasting method, a technology in northern China, applied in forecasting, instruments, biological neural network models, etc., can solve problems such as time relations, and achieve the effect of filling technical gaps, major environmental and economic strategic values, and academic significance

Active Publication Date: 2019-01-11
TIANJIN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies in the existing NDVI prediction technology for the grassland areas in northern China, using the observation data of rainfall and NDVI in the past to provide a prediction method for NDVI in the grassland areas in northern China based on TDNN, which effectively solves the problem of rainfall The problem of the time relationship between the amount and the input of the model when modeling NDVI has realized the accurate prediction of NDVI, thereby indirectly realizing the accurate prediction of the theoretical stock carrying capacity in the future years, which will be beneficial to the realization of scientific grazing and vegetation restoration and protection in grassland areas

Method used

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  • TDNN-based prediction method for NDVI in the grassland area of northern China
  • TDNN-based prediction method for NDVI in the grassland area of northern China
  • TDNN-based prediction method for NDVI in the grassland area of northern China

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Embodiment

[0058] Now based on Hulunbeier Ewenki area 1961-2014 year growing season rainfall monthly mean, 2000-2014 year growing season NDVI monthly mean, in conjunction with the establishment method of this area NDVI prediction model to the present invention based on TDNN North China grassland area NDVI The prediction method is described in detail.

[0059] 1. Select the input variables of the prediction model, conduct correlation analysis based on SPSS statistical software, and finally determine the input sequences P(t-1), P(t-2), and P(t-3) corresponding to P(t);

[0060] 2. Obtain the training data and test data of the rainfall TDNN prediction model, according to figure 1 The process of importing the training data into the rainfall TDNN prediction model, and training the rainfall TDNN prediction model;

[0061] 3. Determine the structure of the optimal model, figure 2 As shown, the input variables are determined to be P(t-1), P(t-2), P(t-3), that is, the rainfall of the previous ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a TDNN-based prediction method for NDVI in the grassland area of northern China: establishing a TDNN prediction model of monthly average rainfall in the future year growth seasons; establishing a future year growth season monthly average rainfall-NDVI mapping model; putting the future year growth season rainfall monthly average prediction value generated by the rainfall TDNN prediction model into the rainfall-NDVI mapping model to obtain the future year growth season NDVI monthly average prediction value. The invention can accurately predict the average value of the NDVI in the growing seasons (June to August), thereby realizing the evaluation of the number of grazable livestock (carrying capacity) in the future years according to the prediction value of the NDVI. The method is conducive to realizing the dynamic grazing strategy based on the predictable climatic conditions, so as to avoid the occurrence of overgrazing in the disaster years.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of NDVI predictive modeling, and more specifically, relates to a TDNN-based NDVI predictive method in grassland areas in northern China. Background technique [0002] In the past 30 years, the vegetation in the northern China grasslands has been seriously degraded. On the one hand, it is attributed to the rapid development of animal husbandry in the grasslands, that is, the continuous increase of overgrazing, which leads to a significant imbalance between grass production and livestock numbers, and finally leads to continuous grasslands. degradation and desertification. On the other hand, due to the abnormal annual variation of rainfall in this area, severe drought and flood disasters occurred in very few years, which seriously threatened the protection and restoration of the grassland ecological environment in this area, as well as the sustainable development of grassland animal husbandry. [0003] At present, the e...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/02G06N3/06
CPCG06N3/061G06Q10/04G06Q50/02
Inventor 马建国吴淘锁傅海鹏白红梅
Owner TIANJIN UNIV
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