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A method and device for distributed power output forecasting

A distributed power supply and output prediction technology, applied in circuit devices, electrical components, AC network circuits, etc., can solve the uncertainty of node active power and reactive power, the inaccurate power supply capability of the distribution network, and the inability to real-time distribution network. Operation control provides decision-making basis and other issues to achieve accurate calculation results

Active Publication Date: 2022-02-15
ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID CO LTD +1
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] However, due to the uncertainty of distributed power output, that is, the active power and reactive power of each node are uncertain, the distributed power output calculated by the existing method is not accurate enough to calculate the power supply capacity of the distribution network It cannot provide decision-making basis for the real-time operation control of distribution network

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  • A method and device for distributed power output forecasting
  • A method and device for distributed power output forecasting
  • A method and device for distributed power output forecasting

Examples

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no. 1 example

[0093] The embodiment of the present application provides a first embodiment of a method for forecasting distributed power output, including:

[0094] Step 101, obtain the total output forecast value of the distributed power supply.

[0095] It should be noted that the total output of distributed power can be predicted by many methods. However, due to the uncertainty of distributed power output, the total output of distributed power fluctuates, so the total output prediction value is inaccurate.

[0096] Step 102: Determine the output lower limit of the distributed power generation according to the fluctuation formula of uncertain parameters in the information gap decision theory. The output lower limit is composed of the total output predicted value and a deviation coefficient, wherein the deviation coefficient is unknown and greater than or equal to zero.

[0097] It should be noted that in the information gap decision theory, uncertain parameters will fluctuate around the p...

no. 2 example

[0161] The embodiment of the present application provides a second embodiment of a method for forecasting distributed power output, including:

[0162] Step 601, obtain the total output forecast value of the distributed power supply.

[0163] Step 602: Determine the output upper limit of the distributed power generation according to the fluctuation formula of uncertain parameters in the information gap decision theory. The output upper limit is composed of the total output predicted value and a preset deviation coefficient, wherein the deviation coefficient is unknown and greater than or equal to zero.

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Abstract

The embodiment of the present application discloses a method and device for distributed power output prediction, including: determining the lower limit of distributed power output according to the fluctuation formula of uncertain parameters in the information gap decision theory; Calculate the original power supply capacity based on the output forecast value; determine the lower limit of the power supply capacity according to the initial power supply capacity and the preset first deviation factor; use the negative value of the power supply capacity as the objective function of the risk avoidance model, and determine when the negative value of the objective function is not greater than the power supply capacity The maximum value of the deviation coefficient when the lower limit is negative is recorded as the first deviation coefficient; according to the first deviation coefficient and the fluctuation formula, the output range of the distributed power generation under the risk avoidance model is determined. The embodiments of the present application can more accurately predict the distributed power output under the uncertainty of the distributed power output, so that the calculation of the power supply capacity of the distribution network is more accurate, and provide decision-making basis for the real-time operation control of the distribution network.

Description

technical field [0001] The present application relates to the technical field of electric power market, and in particular to a method and device for output forecasting of distributed power sources. Background technique [0002] With the continuous development of distributed generation (DER) in the distribution network, its access ratio continues to increase. Moreover, due to the uncertainty of distributed generation output, DER has an increasing impact on the power supply capacity of the distribution network. [0003] With the continuous advancement of China's electric power reform, the power market is also constantly advancing. Power trading in the day-ahead market is a continuous, real-time process of supply and demand balance and price determination. Real-time trading is to divide each day into several time periods, and auction and bid the load by time period. All parties involved in real-time power market transactions hope to obtain the power supply capacity informatio...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/38H02J3/46
CPCH02J3/381H02J3/46H02J2203/20
Inventor 李广凯高亚静郑金段力勇王庆红洪骁
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID CO LTD