Spatial downscaling method for meteorological element intelligent grid forecasting product

Abstract

The invention discloses a spatial downscaling method for a meteorological element intelligent grid forecasting product. The spatial downscaling method comprises the steps that firstly, the meteorological element intelligent grid forecasting product is interpolated to a higher-resolution grid, meanwhile, actual conditions and forecast values of ground meteorological elements are obtained, the optimal deviation sliding statistic period and the optimal deviation correcting mode are determined, the actual condition point meteorological element forecasting deviation is counted, station point meteorological element forecasting deviation correcting values are fed back onto surrounding grid points through actual condition points by adopting an estimating neighborhood method, and thus spatial downscaling of the meteorological element intelligent grid forecasting product is achieved. According to the spatial downscaling method, the meteorological element intelligent grid forecasting product is subjected to spatial downscaling treatment, ground encryption meteorological observation station data are utilized to conduct deviation correcting on high-resolution meteorological element intelligentgrid forecasting, thus the high-resolution intelligent grid forecasting product is fine and accurate, it is ensured that the product forecasting accuracy rate is increased while the grid product spatial resolution is increased, the precise grid forecasting product is provided truly, and compared with a currently-used simple interpolation technology, the spatial downscaling method is more reasonable.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of weather forecasting, and relates to a space downscaling method for meteorological element intelligent grid forecasting products. Background technique [0002] With the improvement of numerical weather prediction and the development of refined weather forecasting business, weather forecasting has changed from traditional irregular site forecasting to smart grid forecasting with equal longitude and latitude grids, and the forecast accuracy and refinement level have been significantly improved. At present, the resolution of the nationwide smart grid one-network service product is 0.05 o ⅹ0.05 o , which can basically meet business needs. However, in some areas, the demand for refined forecasting is relatively high, and it is hoped to obtain smart grid forecasting products with higher resolution (for example, 1km resolution). How to obtain higher resolution smart grid forecasting products under the premise ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The high-resolution grid product of this interpolation process is relatively uniform in space, relative to 0.05 o ×0.05 o The grid forecast product does not have more fine features. While improving the product resolution, the forecast accuracy rate does not improve, and it cannot reflect the difference in finer local features.

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