Intelligent deduction method for large-area power failure event based on Bayesian network

A Bayesian network and large-area technology, applied to AC network circuits, electrical components, circuit devices, etc., can solve problems such as feedback and multi-path deduction where the model is difficult to reflect the input, and solve uncertainty and multi-path problems , The effect of improving the emergency level

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-08-20
SHANGHAI MUNICIPAL ELECTRIC POWER CO +1
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, for the scenario deduction of power safety incidents, most of the research is still in the qualitative description stage, and the established model is difficult to reflect the input feedback and multi-path deduction

Method used

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  • Intelligent deduction method for large-area power failure event based on Bayesian network
  • Intelligent deduction method for large-area power failure event based on Bayesian network
  • Intelligent deduction method for large-area power failure event based on Bayesian network

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Embodiment Construction

[0034] The present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. This embodiment is carried out on the premise of the technical solution of the present invention, and detailed implementation and specific operation process are given, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited to the following embodiments.

[0035] Such as Figure 5 As shown, the present invention provides a Bayesian network-based intelligent deduction method for large-scale blackout events, comprising the following steps:

[0036] S1. According to the scenario analysis of typical cases of large-scale power outages at home and abroad, the general evolution mechanism of the event is summarized (such as figure 1 shown):

[0037] Early stage of the accident: the early stage is generally triggered by four major disaster-causing factors: natural factors, human factors, equipment factors, and grid factors. Accident developme...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an intelligent deduction method for a large-area power failure event based on a Bayesian network, which comprises the steps of summarizing the general evolution process of power security emergencies through typical large-area power failure cases; analyzing multiple paths of large-area power failure event evolution by surrounding three elements such as the scenario state, processing method and processing target, selecting key scenarios, and constructing a scenario network of event development; calculating the conditional probability of hopping between network nodes by combining historical cases and expert opinions; and building a Bayesian network of the large-area power failure event by means of simulation, and realizing the multi-path and multi-result deduction. The intelligent deduction method effectively solves the problems of uncertainty and multiple paths of scenario deduction of the typical power security emergencies, can visually reflect the effect of emergency measures, and facilitates the emergency personnel to timely adjust disposal measures and continuously improve the emergency level. The intelligent deduction method has important significance for analyzing the evolution mechanism of emergencies.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a power safety emergency deduction technology, in particular to a large-area power outage event scenario deduction method based on Bayesian network analysis. Background technique [0002] At present, my country's power system is characterized by large-scale UHV AC-DC hybrid connection and a large number of new energy sources, frequent disasters, power production safety accidents have not been effectively eliminated, and emergency decision-making and implementation capabilities need to be improved. Improving the power emergency management system, speeding up the preparation of power emergency plans, and improving power emergency decision-making capabilities are tasks that will continue to be completed. [0003] Large-scale power outages involve many links, the mechanism of occurrence and evolution is complex, the evolution process has a high degree of uncertainty and chain dynamics, and the direct and secondary disasters are ver...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00
CPCH02J3/00H02J3/001H02J2203/20
Inventor 吕政权彭道刚林栋王海峰张涵陈怡君彭勇邵宇鹰
Owner SHANGHAI MUNICIPAL ELECTRIC POWER CO
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