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Distribution network load calculation and prediction method for operation and maintenance of power distribution equipment

A technology of power distribution equipment and forecasting method, which is applied in the field of distribution network load estimation and forecasting oriented to the operation and maintenance of power distribution equipment, can solve the problems of low load forecasting accuracy, load forecasting does not consider economic indicators, etc., so as to reduce the need for forecasting time, early calculation of budget, and the effect of improving forecast accuracy

Pending Publication Date: 2020-05-12
GUIZHOU POWER GRID CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a distribution network load estimation and forecasting method oriented to the operation and maintenance of power distribution equipment, so as to solve the technical problems of low load forecasting accuracy caused by the lack of consideration of economic index factors in the prior art load forecasting

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  • Distribution network load calculation and prediction method for operation and maintenance of power distribution equipment
  • Distribution network load calculation and prediction method for operation and maintenance of power distribution equipment
  • Distribution network load calculation and prediction method for operation and maintenance of power distribution equipment

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Embodiment Construction

[0018] The distribution network planning economic index and load estimation and forecasting method provided by the present invention will be described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0019] Such as figure 1 As shown, the distribution network planning economic index and load estimation and forecasting method provided by the present invention include the following steps performed in order:

[0020] Step (1) Data collection. Collect data according to Table 1. Including the land area, GDP, industrial structure, population and other economic factors of each power supply area.

[0021] Table 1 Data to be collected

[0022]

[0023] Step (2) structure identification, adaptively determine the initial rules of the model according to the input data. On the one hand, if the fuzzy rules are designed only relying on the domain knowledge of experts, the useful knowledge in a large amount of input data may be ignored. On the other hand,...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a distribution network load calculation and prediction method for operation and maintenance of power distribution equipment. The method comprises the steps of (1) acquisition of data, wherein the data comprises land area, GDP, industrial structure and demographic economic factors of each power supply area; (2) identification of the structure: adaptively determining an initial rule of the model according to the input data to obtain a neural network structure; (3) parameter learning; (4) verification of the model. Finally, a prediction model is obtained, verification is conducted through historical data, and if the error is kept within the range of 10%, it is proved that the model is valid; in the prior art, economic index factors are not considered in load predictionso that load prediction precision is low and so on.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to load forecasting technology, in particular to a distribution network load estimation and forecasting method oriented to the operation and maintenance of power distribution equipment. Background technique [0002] Data calculation and prediction technology refers to the use of various knowledge, through the analysis of historical data, to realize the prediction and estimation of the development trend or possible results of things. Through the predicted information, the distribution network planning scale and the formulation of economic indicators can be reasonably arranged. At the same time, forecasting technology can also be applied in the field of operation and maintenance of power distribution equipment. The operation and maintenance plan can be reasonably arranged through the forecast results to keep the equipment running efficiently and safely. However, the existing load forecasting does not consider economic indicators, re...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06N3/04
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06393G06Q50/06G06N3/043
Inventor 王林波罗凤章曾惜王元峰王冕马廷桦王恩伟杨金铎王宏远付滨刘畅杜雪
Owner GUIZHOU POWER GRID CO LTD
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