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Regional power grid branch off-limit risk probability prediction method and system

A technology for regional power grids and probability forecasting, applied in information technology support systems, forecasting, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as difficulty in technical implementation

Pending Publication Date: 2020-10-02
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +2
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

To sum up, the regional power grid operation risk is of great significance to the pre-control of the regional power grid, but it has certain difficulties in technical realization

Method used

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  • Regional power grid branch off-limit risk probability prediction method and system
  • Regional power grid branch off-limit risk probability prediction method and system
  • Regional power grid branch off-limit risk probability prediction method and system

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Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0056] Embodiment 1: In order to improve the accuracy of the regional power grid branch cross-limit risk prediction in the future, according to the linear relationship between the regional power grid branch power and the aggregated load power, the active power of the regional power grid branch in the future period is designed. The probability distribution function of power, the technical difficulty lies in:

[0057] First, how to establish the probability density function of the active power of the regional grid aggregate load at the next moment;

[0058] Second, how to establish the probability distribution function of the active power of each branch of the regional power grid at the next moment.

[0059] Such as figure 1 As shown, in order to overcome the above technical difficulties, the present invention proposes a probabilistic prediction method for regional power grid branch cross-limit risks, including:

[0060] S1 is based on the acquired data of the active power of ...

Embodiment 2

[0129] Embodiment 2: Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the present invention also provides a probabilistic prediction system for regional grid branch cross-limit risks, including:

[0130] The prediction module is used to calculate the probability density function of the active power of each aggregated load at the next moment based on the acquired data of the active power of each aggregated load in the regional power grid;

[0131] The conversion module is used to obtain the probability distribution function of the active power of the branches of the regional power grid at the next moment by using the probability density function of the active power of each aggregated load at the next moment based on the linear relationship between the aggregated load and each branch of the regional power grid;

[0132] The result module is configured to obtain the probability value of each branch power exceeding the limit based on the probability distribution function of t...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a regional power grid branch out-of-limit risk probability prediction method and system. The method comprises the steps: calculating the probability density function of the active power of each aggregated load at the next moment based on the obtained data of the active power of each aggregated load in a regional power grid; obtaining a probability distribution function of the active power of the regional power grid branch at the next moment by utilizing the probability density function of the active power of each aggregated load at the next moment based on the linear relationship between the aggregated load and each branch of the regional power grid; and obtaining a probability value of power out-of-limit of each branch based on the probability distribution functionof the active power of each branch and the limit value of each branch. According to the method, a high-order Markov chain technology is combined with a Gaussian mixture model, and a high-precision calculation method of a probability density function of regional power grid aggregation load active power is provided; accurate probability information is provided for out-of-limit risks of branches ofthe regional power grid according to the linear relation between the aggregated loads and the branches of the regional power grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to electric power automation, and in particular to a method and system for probabilistic prediction of regional power grid branch cross-limit risks. Background technique [0002] The regional power grid refers to the power system composed of 220kV transmission network, 110kV / 35kV high-voltage distribution network, and 10kV and below medium and low-voltage distribution network. With the acceleration of urbanization, the urban load represented by residents, commerce, and high-end manufacturing has developed rapidly in recent years. However, due to channel constraints, lack of landing sites, blocked construction schedules, and other reasons, the operation risks of urban power grids caused by insufficient capacity or uneven loads have emerged. Some cities have to take frequent or even large-scale switching operations during peak hours. blocking conditions. [0003] At present, the regional power grid operation risk assessment techno...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0635G06Q10/06393G06Q50/06Y04S10/50Y04S50/16
Inventor 王少芳李理杜延菱王淼张隽孙博刘海涛马晓忱王冠楠刘鹏杨晓楠罗雅迪李静邢晶周博
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST