A simulation method of wind farm output time series curve considering correlation
A simulation method and wind power output technology, applied in design optimization/simulation, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems that the probability output model cannot reflect randomness, large output fluctuations, and large fluctuation calculations
Active Publication Date: 2022-07-05
STATE GRID FUJIAN ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD +2
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[0004] In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a wind farm output time series curve simulation method considering correlation, which solves the problem that the traditional probability output model cannot reflect randomness and volatility, and the traditional time series output model has a large amount of calculation and output fluctuations. big problem
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[0034] The present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.
[0035] Please refer to figure 1 , the present invention provides a method for simulating the output time series curve of a wind farm considering the correlation. In this embodiment, two wind farms with a geographic distance of about 5 kilometers in the southeast coast are taken as specific application examples, wherein the installed capacity of wind farm 1 is 50MW, and the wind power The installed capacity of Farm 2 is 56MW, and the wind power output data of the two wind farms in the summer of 2017 is taken as a sample.
[0036] Include the following steps:
[0037] Step S1: collect the historical output data of two wind farms as samples by quarter and time period, and use the kernel density estimation method to solve the marginal distribution of wind power output; the quarters include spring from March to May, summer from June to August, -Four seasons ...
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The present invention relates to a method for simulating a time series curve of wind farm output considering correlation, comprising the following steps: Step S1: collecting historical output data of two wind farms as samples by quarter and time period, and using kernel density estimation method to solve the edge of wind power output respectively Distribution; Step S2: use the Frank Copula function to describe the correlation of two wind farms, and obtain a correlation coefficient; Step S3: randomly generate wind power sample points according to the obtained Frank Copula correlation coefficient and the probability distribution of wind power output; Step S4: According to the obtained sample points of wind power, the time series curve of wind power output is obtained through Monte Carlo simulation; step S5 : correcting the time series curve based on the short-term change rule of the wind farm to obtain the final time series curve of wind power output. The invention comprehensively reflects the real situation of wind power output, and solves the problems that the traditional probability output model cannot reflect randomness and volatility, and the traditional time series output model has large calculation amount and large output fluctuation.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power system simulation methods, and in particular relates to a wind farm output time series curve simulation method considering correlation. Background technique [0002] In today's world of energy shortages and increasingly serious environmental pollution, wind energy, as a clean and mature renewable energy, has made great strides in the world in recent years, and has become a new growth point and one of the main directions of global renewable energy development. one. Because wind power output has the characteristics of large randomness, strong volatility, and uncontrollable output, it brings new challenges to the planning and operation of the transmission system. The accurate modeling of wind power output is the key to study the future high-proportion renewable energy power system. The premise of planning and operation to ensure the safe and economical operation of the system. [0003] Conventional wind farm o...
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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q50/06
Inventor 叶荣吴威林章岁孟永庆邹艺超李斯佳
Owner STATE GRID FUJIAN ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD