Prediction method and prediction device for probabilistic short-term load of power system and processor

Abstract

The invention provides a prediction method and prediction device for probabilistic short-term load of a power system and a processor. The method comprises the following steps: constructing a pluralityof probabilistic load prediction models based on a power system, each probabilistic load prediction model corresponding to a plurality of quantiles; determining the weight of each quantile; obtaininga comprehensive prediction model according to the weight of each quantile and each probabilistic load prediction model; and predicting the short-term load of the power system according to the comprehensive prediction model. The comprehensive prediction model can accurately predict the short-term load of the power system, and is not only suitable for the power system under the influence of extremefactors, but also suitable for the power system under the influence of non-extreme factors. The problems that a load prediction method is small in application range and low in prediction precision are solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present application relates to the field of power load forecasting, and in particular, relates to a probabilistic short-term load forecasting method, forecasting device, computer-readable storage medium and processor of a power system. Background technique [0002] At present, sudden changes in climate lead to a decline in the accuracy of meteorological forecasts, which in turn affects the accuracy of grid load forecasting. Unforeseen changes in grid load characteristics caused by rapidly growing distributed photovoltaic output and coal-to-electricity loads affect the accuracy of load forecasting in the day-ahead. The superposition of various interference factors makes it more and more difficult for traditional load forecasting methods such as "regression / extrapolation" and "neural network" to be applied to the existing day-ahead load forecasting work. [0003] From a domestic point of view, the current research work on load forecasting mainly focu...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The main purpose of this application is to provide a probabilistic short-term load forecasting method, forecasting device, computer-readable storage medium and processor in the power system, so as to solve the problem that the existing load forecasting method in the prior art has a small scope of application and the forecasting low precision problem

Images