Aero-engine gas path health state prediction method considering working condition changes

Abstract

The invention relates to an aero-engine gas path health state prediction method considering working condition changes, and belongs to the technical field of reliability engineering. The method comprises the following steps: 1, analyzing a working mechanism and a fault mechanism of an aero-engine gas path system, and extracting characteristic quantity capable of representing the health state of anaero-engine gas path; 2, calculating a kurtosis index of the health state characteristic quantity, and establishing a working condition division model based on a time sequence according to the kurtosis index; 3, establishing a health state characteristic quantity time sequence prediction model by utilizing a belief rule base (BRB) according to the characteristic quantity and expert knowledge; 4, fusing a time prediction result and a working condition result according to the health state characteristic quantity, and then establishing a BRB-based aero-engine gas path system health state prediction model; 5, updating initial parameters in the BRB-based aero-engine gas path prediction model through the adaptive evolution strategy of projection covariance matrix, P-CMA-ES. The method has the advantages that the influence on aero-engine gas path health state during working condition changes is considered, and the precision of an aero-engine gas path health state prediction model can be remarkably improved.

Description

Technical field: [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the health state, in particular to a method for predicting the health state of an aero-engine air path considering changes in working conditions. It belongs to the technical field of reliability engineering. Background technique: [0002] Aeroengines are the heart of an aircraft, and their health is of paramount importance. Since the 1980s, the global aviation industry has developed rapidly, but the accompanying flight safety issues have become more and more prominent. According to data, in all aircraft flight accidents, the accidents caused by aeroengine failure account for about 55%. Moreover, aero-engines are made of special materials and special processes, and it is not feasible to replace engines frequently, so major airlines generally use regular repairs and maintenance to solve problems, but this will waste a lot of repairs and maintenance cost. According to statistics, the maintenance cost o...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the gas path system of aero-engines often works under complex and changeable working conditions. Its acceleration and deceleration process is fast and the cycle is short. The research on the system performance degradation trend under single working conditions cannot accurately characterize the health of the gas path system of aero-engines. state

Moreover, at present, only quantitative data is used to identify operating conditions, without considering qualitative knowledge, so the accuracy of operating condition identification is not high, resulting in low accuracy in predicting the health status of the aeroengine gas circuit system. Therefore, research on how to accurately and effectively predict The health status of the aero-engine air system under multiple working conditions is very important

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