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Quantitative evaluation method and system for new energy power generation power prediction deviation

A technology for generating power and quantitative evaluation, which is applied to power generation forecasting, electrical components, circuit devices, etc. in AC networks, and can solve problems such as unclear physical meaning, weak power deviation, and inability to effectively guide dispatching applications.

Pending Publication Date: 2021-04-27
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +3
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  • Abstract
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  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the current precision analysis indicators or prediction deviation evaluation indicators of new energy power generation prediction results mainly use conventional statistical indicators such as root mean square error and mean absolute error. The physical meaning of the statistical results of these indicators is not clear, especially for power deviation. The performance is not strong, and it is impossible to effectively guide the scheduling application

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  • Quantitative evaluation method and system for new energy power generation power prediction deviation
  • Quantitative evaluation method and system for new energy power generation power prediction deviation
  • Quantitative evaluation method and system for new energy power generation power prediction deviation

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Embodiment 1

[0049] This embodiment provides a new energy generation power prediction deviation quantitative evaluation method such as figure 1 shown, including:

[0050] S1 obtains the data of the new energy power station and the actual consumption limit of the power grid;

[0051] S2 Based on the data of the new energy power station and the actual consumption limit of the power grid, select the corresponding deviation quantification index from a plurality of preset deviation quantification indicators, and calculate each deviation quantification based on the predicted power calculation formula corresponding to the deviation quantification index indicator value of the indicator;

[0052] S3 Evaluate the forecast deviation of the new energy generation power based on the index values ​​of the deviation quantification indicators.

[0053] Specifically, S2 is based on the data of the new energy power station and the actual consumption limit of the power grid, selects the corresponding deviatio...

Embodiment 2

[0098] This embodiment provides a new energy power generation power prediction deviation quantification system such as figure 2 shown, including:

[0099] The data acquisition module is used to obtain the data of the new energy power station and the actual consumption limit of the power grid; the deviation quantification index calculation module is used to quantify the deviation from multiple preset deviations based on the data of the new energy power station and the actual consumption limit of the power grid. Select the corresponding deviation quantification index in the index, and calculate the index value of each deviation quantification index based on the predicted electric quantity calculation formula corresponding to the deviation quantification index;

[0100] The quantitative evaluation module is used to evaluate the deviation of the new energy generation power prediction based on the index values ​​of the deviation quantitative indicators.

[0101] Among them, the d...

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Abstract

The invention provides a quantitative evaluation method and system for new energy power generation power prediction deviation. The method comprises the steps of acquiring data of a new energy power station and actual consumption limitation of a power grid, selecting a corresponding deviation quantification index from a plurality of preset deviation quantification indexes based on the data of the new energy power station and the actual consumption limit of the power grid, and calculating an index value of each deviation quantification index based on a prediction electric quantity calculation formula corresponding to the deviation quantification index, and evaluating the new energy power generation power prediction deviation based on the values of the deviation quantification indexes. By adopting the quantitative evaluation method for the new energy power generation power prediction deviation, the power deviation degree of the prediction power can be accurately reflected, and the regulation and control operation of the new energy can be practically and effectively guided.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of new energy power generation forecasting, and in particular relates to a method and system for quantifying and evaluating deviations of new energy power generation power forecasting. Background technique [0002] New energy generation power prediction is one of the effective means to deal with the problems caused by large-scale random fluctuations of new energy grid-connected grids. However, there are deviations in the prediction results of new energy power generation power. Based on the prediction results, it is necessary to reasonably consider the deviation of the power prediction results when preparing a power generation plan. However, the current precision analysis indicators or prediction deviation evaluation indicators of new energy power generation prediction results mainly use conventional statistical indicators such as root mean square error and mean absolute error. The physical meaning of the sta...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00H02J3/46
CPCH02J3/004H02J3/466H02J2203/20
Inventor 王铮王勃王伟胜冯双磊刘纯赵艳青姜文玲裴岩胡菊靳双龙宋宗朋王姝车建峰张菲汪步惟王钊
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST