Comprehensive evaluation method for influence of climate change on river runoff
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A climate change and comprehensive assessment technology, applied in the field of water resources engineering, can solve problems such as the uncertainty of assessment results
Pending Publication Date: 2021-05-18
CHANGCHUN INST OF TECH
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Embodiment 1
[0026] Such as figure 1 As shown, a comprehensive assessment method for the impact of climate change on river runoff includes the following steps:
[0027] S1. Collect climate parameters and temporal and spatial variation characteristics of river runoff;
[0028] S2, using the MK trend test method based on improved over-whitening to analyze and test the change trend of climate parameters and river runoff, and determine the abrupt change point of climate parameters and river runoff;
[0029] S3. Dividing the period before the mutation point into a natural period, and dividing the period after the mutation point into an impact period;
[0030] S4. Calculate the annual mean runoff variation caused by climate change during the impact period based on the SWAT model and the elastic coefficient method;
[0031] S5. Calculate the impact of climate change on runoff change according to the annual average runoff change caused by the climate change.
[0032] In this embodiment, in the ...
Embodiment 2
[0039] Such as figure 2 As shown, a comprehensive assessment method for the impact of climate change on river runoff includes the following steps:
[0040] S1. Collect climate parameters and temporal and spatial variation characteristics of river runoff;
[0041] S2. Draw a dynamic curve based on climate parameters and river runoff parameters; the dynamic curve includes a temporal curve and a spatial effect curve. The temporal curve shows the changes in the original data or transfer data of each monitoring point over time, and the spatial effect curve highlights The change law of the monitoring results of different measuring points at the same time as the geographical location changes;
[0042] S3, using the MK trend test method based on improved over-whitening to analyze and test the change trend of climate parameters and river runoff, and determine the abrupt change point of climate parameters and river runoff;
[0043] S4. Dividing the period before the mutation point in...
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for comprehensively evaluating the influence of climate change on river runoff. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring climate parameters and spatial and temporal change characteristics of the river runoff; analyzing and inspecting the change trend of the climate parameters and the river runoff by adopting an MK trend inspection method based on improved over-whitening, and determining mutation points of the climate parameters and the river runoff; dividing a period before the mutation point into a natural period, and dividing a period after the mutation point into an influence period; based on an SWAT model and an elastic coefficient method, calculating annual average runoff variation caused by climate change in the influence period; and calculating the influence of the climate change on the runoff change according to the annual average runoff change quantity caused by the climate change. According to the method, the multivariate attribution analysis of the climate change on the river runoff change is more objective and accurate, and the method has important practical significance in the aspects of basin water resource evolution analysis and identification, water resource planning management, disaster prevention and reduction, water safety and the like in a changing environment.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of water resources engineering, in particular to a comprehensive evaluation method for the impact of climate change on river runoff. Background technique [0002] In recent years, environmental change and water resources evolution have become the focus of global water science research. Climate change is an important part of environmental change, and its impact on hydrological processes is a widely concerned issue at home and abroad. The water cycle of a watershed is a complex process, which is affected by many factors such as climate change and underlying surface. Precipitation is used as an "input", and the temporal and spatial changes of precipitation will lead to changes in the natural water cycle, which will change the original rainfall-runoff relationship, change the temporal and spatial distribution of water resources, and lead to more complex evolution of the water resource system. Among them, how t...
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