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Degradation equipment residual life prediction method considering age and state dependence

A life prediction and state-dependent technology, applied in computer-aided design, design optimization/simulation, special data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as accelerated degradation rate, lack of consideration, increased stress intensity, etc., and achieve the effect of improving prediction accuracy

Pending Publication Date: 2021-06-11
中国人民解放军火箭军工程大学
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

As the fatigue crack grows, the stress intensity will gradually increase, resulting in an accelerated degradation rate
At present, there is a lack of relevant research on the remaining life prediction method of degraded equipment that is dependent on both age and state under the consideration of individual differences and implicit degradation states

Method used

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  • Degradation equipment residual life prediction method considering age and state dependence
  • Degradation equipment residual life prediction method considering age and state dependence
  • Degradation equipment residual life prediction method considering age and state dependence

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Embodiment Construction

[0121] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments It is a part of embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments.

[0122] Accordingly, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the invention provided in the accompanying drawings is not intended to limit the scope of the claimed invention, but merely represents selected embodiments of the invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts all belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0123] The present invention specifically provides a method for predicting the remaining life ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a degraded equipment residual life prediction method considering age and state dependence, and the method comprises the steps: firstly, describing a relationship between a hidden degradation state and an observation value for degraded equipment in a project through constructing a state space model; then, using Kalman filtering (KF) and expectation maximization (EM) algorithms to adaptively estimate and update the degradation state and unknown parameters; based on the estimated degradation state and model parameters, deriving a residual life distribution analysis form which is based on an existing observation value and can be updated in real time so that residual life prediction precision is effectively improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reliability engineering, in particular to a method for predicting the remaining life of degraded equipment considering age and state dependence. Background technique [0002] As one of the key issues in prognostics and health management (PHM), estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of degraded equipment can provide useful information for condition-based maintenance decisions, optimal inspection intervals, and spare parts ordering. In order to obtain accurate RUL distribution estimation, a suitable degradation model that can fully characterize the characteristics of the actual degradation process is needed. [0003] Nonlinearity and randomness are important factors that must be considered when estimating RUL in the framework of stochastic degradation models, and stochastic process models are usually used to describe the randomness of degradation. At the same time, individual variability is also an imp...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06F119/04
CPCG06F30/20G06F2119/04Y02P90/30
Inventor 司小胜庞哲楠胡昌华裴洪李天梅
Owner 中国人民解放军火箭军工程大学