This invention relates to the field of distribution network
load forecasting technology. Specifically, it relates to a
load forecasting method for urban medium- and low-
voltage distribution networks based on PHM (
Prognostics and Health Management). It includes the following steps: S1, collecting historical load data of the medium- and low-
voltage distribution network, simultaneously acquiring PHM data of the medium- and low-
voltage distribution network equipment, performing risk
health index analysis based on the PHM data, and obtaining the risk
health index of the medium- and low-voltage distribution network. This invention employs a hierarchical load splitting strategy of medium-voltage feeder-
transformer area-individual user, combined with a two-dimensional user classification
system of
electricity consumption characteristics and total
electricity load, refining load data to the individual user level. Simultaneously, it dynamically sets the data collection duration through load fluctuation frequency and sets a comprehensive fluctuation range based on the statistical characteristics of the load fluctuation range of users of the same category, achieving refined and personalized
load forecasting. Compared with existing single-dimensional classification and fixed-range constraints, this significantly improves the accuracy of load forecasting for different types of users.