Regional available water supply estimation method considering multi-water-source joint probability distribution

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of water resource planning and management, in particular to a regional water supply amount estimation method considering multi-water-source joint probability distribution. The method comprises the following steps: analyzing a plurality of water supply sources in a set area to obtain runoff data; respectively calculating a correlation coefficient between every two water supply sources, and judging the correlation of the water supply source runoff series; aiming at the water supply sources with relatively strong correlation, utilizing a Copula function to obtain a joint probability distribution function, and carrying out hydrological plump and heave situation analysis on the plurality of water supply sources to obtain runoff volumes of the plurality of water supply sources under different plump and heave situations; for a water supply source with relatively weak correlation, drawing an annual runoff frequency curve based on a P-III type curve to obtain runoff under different hydrological guarantee rates; and determining the water supply amount of the upstream reservoir in the high, middle and low precipitation years by combining the water storage requirement of the reservoir and the ecological base flow requirement of the river. According to the method, the uncertainty of water supply change caused by runoff change is considered, and a quantitative basis is provided for optimal allocation of regional water resources.

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