A method for estimating regional water availability considering the joint probability distribution of multiple water sources

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of water resources planning and management, in particular to a method for estimating regional water availability considering joint probability distribution of multiple water sources. The method comprises the following steps: analyzing a plurality of water supply sources in a set area to obtain runoff data; calculating correlation coefficients between two water supply sources respectively, and distinguishing the correlation of runoff series of water supply sources; For the water supply source, use the Copula function to obtain the joint probability distribution function, analyze the hydrological abundance and drought conditions of multiple water supply sources, and obtain the runoff of multiple water supply sources under different abundance and drought conditions; for water supply sources with weak correlation, based on The P-III curve draws the annual runoff frequency curve to obtain the runoff under different hydrological guarantee rates; combined with the reservoir water storage requirements and the river's ecological base flow requirements, determine the water supply of the upstream reservoir in the years of high and low. The invention takes into account the uncertainty of water supply changes caused by runoff changes, and provides quantitative basis for optimal allocation of regional water resources.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of water resources planning and management, in particular to a method for estimating regional water availability considering joint probability distribution of multiple water sources. Background technique [0002] Reasonable estimation of regional water availability is an important basis for optimal allocation and planning and management of regional water resources. At present, most studies on the estimation of regional water supply generally adopt the typical year method, which estimates the water supply by selecting the external transfer and internal flow of the basin in a typical hydrological year. The long series adjustment method is used to calculate the water supply. For the multi-source water diversion in the region, it is generally estimated based on the water supply guarantee rate of the river and the water supply of a single project, and then superimposed after deducting the double-calculated water supply to...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In view of this, the existing regional water supply estimation methods cannot effectively describe the uncertainty of the water resource system, cannot accurately quantify the correlation between multiple water supply sources in the region, and fail to comprehensively consider the differences between multiple water supply sources. In order to provide a reliable basis for the further realization of optimal allocation of water resources

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