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Traffic state prediction method and device

A technology of traffic status and prediction method, which is applied in the direction of traffic flow detection, prediction, and traffic signal control, etc. It can solve the problems of unpredictability, no consideration of vehicle speed, poor accuracy of short-term prediction results, etc., and achieve the effect of facilitating pre-scheduling

Active Publication Date: 2021-07-16
ALIBABA GRP HLDG LTD
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

It can be seen from the above-mentioned traffic state prediction method in the prior art that because it does not take into account the vehicle speed on the current road section in the real world, the accuracy of short-term prediction results is poor or even impossible to predict

Method used

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  • Traffic state prediction method and device
  • Traffic state prediction method and device

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0078] see figure 2 and 3 , Embodiment 1 of the present invention provides a traffic state prediction method and device, including the following steps:

[0079] (1) Calculate the traffic volume of the adjacent downstream road section within the next predicted time length, and the traffic volume is the number of vehicles that can be reached within the next predicted time length.

[0080] The method also includes:

[0081] Obtain the traffic state prediction time length;

[0082] Acquiring the current actual number of navigation users of the current road segment, the adjacent downstream road segment being the adjacent downstream road segment of the current road segment;

[0083] Obtain the travel time of passing through the current road segment under the current traffic state.

[0084] Described calculating the traffic volume of the adjacent downstream section in the next predicted time length is specifically:

[0085] Based on the predicted time length of the traffic stat...

Embodiment 2

[0126] see Figure 4 , Embodiment 2 of the present invention also provides a traffic state prediction device, which device includes: a traffic volume prediction module, an acquisition module 1, an acquisition module 2, an acquisition module 3, an acquisition module 4, an acquisition module 5, a setting module, The bearing capacity calculation module, the bearing capacity data table generation module, the traffic state prediction module and the prediction result output module.

[0127] The traffic volume prediction module is used to calculate the traffic volume of the adjacent downstream road section within the next forecast time length, and the traffic volume is the number of vehicles that can be reached within the next forecast time length.

[0128] The traffic state prediction device also includes:

[0129] The acquisition module 2 is used to acquire the traffic state prediction time length;

[0130] Obtaining module three, used to obtain the current actual number of navig...

Embodiment 3

[0174] Figure 5 Specific examples of the present invention are shown. Such as Figure 5 As shown, assuming that the current moment is 12:30 on September 30, 2018, then Figure 5 The road traffic status displayed in is the predicted value at 13:00 of the day, and different colors can be used to indicate congestion or smooth flow. The effect of this dynamic prediction method after the actual application of scene 1 and scene 2 road sections is as follows:

[0175] Scenario section: When calculating the traffic volume of the adjacent downstream section in the next forecast period to be 15, define the road carrying capacity data table based on the navigation data based on the different traffic conditions of the expressway generated after learning, and output the road carrying capacity defined based on the navigation data The traffic state prediction result of the road section under the force is unblocked.

[0176]Scene 2 road section: When the traffic volume of the adjacent do...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a traffic state prediction method and device. The traffic state prediction method comprises the steps of: calculating traffic volume of adjacent downstream road sections in the next prediction time length; acquiring road grades of the adjacent downstream road sections; and calculating traffic states of the adjacent downstream road sections based on the traffic volume and a bearing capacity data table, wherein the bearing capacity data table comprises a corresponding relationship between the road traffic state and the navigation user bearing capacity under each road grade, and the navigation user bearing capacity represents a traffic volume interval value which can be borne by the road in the traffic state of a certain road. Based on the traffic state prediction method and device, the invention further provides a reversible lane control method and device. Through adopting an internet technology and a traffic big data analysis means, the road traffic state prediction after the short-time dynamic prediction of the arrival traffic volume of a future road section is realized from the two dimensions of the current road section traffic flow and the road bearing capacity based on historical data.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of traffic travel, in particular to a traffic state prediction method and device. Background technique [0002] Traditional traffic forecast refers to the quantitative description of the relationship between various elements of traffic phenomena and the relationship between traffic phenomena and various factors of social and economic activities. It is established by a large number of manual survey statistics and mathematical methods such as mathematical statistics. There are usually input and output terminals: the input terminal is the known factors, that is, the independent variable; the output terminal is the traffic state to be estimated or predicted, that is, the dependent variable. Manual observation requires a lot of manpower and funds, and it cannot be observed continuously for a long time; forecasting the traffic status in the future time period (same month / same week) based on the average value of hi...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G08G1/01G08G1/07G06Q10/04
CPCG08G1/0104G06Q10/04G08G1/07
Inventor 吴泽驹苏岳龙毕超凡董振宁
Owner ALIBABA GRP HLDG LTD