Method for predicting thunder and lightning

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of thunder and lightning early warning, and discloses a method for predicting thunder and lightning. The method comprises three stages of data preprocessing, thunder and lightning prediction and prediction result output, wherein in the data preprocessing stage, an image is used for representing attributes of data to be processed and fuzzy processing is carried out; in the thunder prediction stage, the features of the image subjected to fuzzy processing are extracted through convolution operation, a function reflecting thunder attribute changes is obtained through recurrent neural network coding, and then deconvolution operation is carried out to decode thunder attribute future change conditions represented by the function into a dynamic gray level image. According to the method, redundancy and interference caused by non-convective echoes or non-lightning position echoes are eliminated, and local spatial characteristics and time sequence change rules of thunderstorm clouds directly related to thunder and lightning are constructed, so that the accuracy of thunder and lightning prediction is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of lightning early warning, and specifically discloses a method for predicting lightning. Background technique [0002] Lightning is the product of strong convective weather process. The process of strong convective weather evolves rapidly, and the formation, dissipation, merging and splitting of cloud clusters are complicated, which makes it difficult to forecast and warn of thunder and lightning. At present, there are mainly the following methods for lightning forecasting: [0003] Using atmospheric electric field instrument or its network to forecast lightning. For example, Chinese patent CN110297284A "A Method for Tracking the Moving Path of Thunderstorm Cloud Based on a Three-dimensional Atmospheric Electric Field Instrument" discloses a method for detecting the azimuth of thunderstorm cloud and tracking its moving path by using an atmospheric electric field instrument. Chinese patent CN106353604B "A...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0009] Generally speaking, the current lightning forecasting methods put forward relatively simple criteria, usually using the threshold or correlation formula of a certain physical parameter (such as atmospheric electric field strength or its rate of change, rate of change of cloud top brightness temperature, and radar echo dBZ) to determine the It is difficult to accurately describe the complex laws of thunderstorm cloud movement and generation, disappearance, accumulation, and change by predicting the occurrence or moving path of thunderstorms

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