A Disaster Early Warning Method of Glacier Moraine Lake Burst

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of early warning of geological disasters, which discloses an early warning method for glacier-type moraine lake outburst disasters, which solves the problems of low early warning accuracy and difficult implementation in the early warning schemes in the prior art. The method includes: S1. Calculate the topographic parameters of the moraine lake and its adjacent upstream glaciers, and select the moraine lakes that need to be monitored; S2. Calculate the freeze-thaw cycle index of the moraine lakes that need to be monitored in the area adjacent to the upstream glacier. and regional accumulated temperature index; S3, based on the freeze-thaw cycle index and regional accumulated temperature index calculated in step S2, calculate the catastrophic climate determination factor T G‑year , using the ice avalanche type moraine lake outburst climate judgment model to judge, if the catastrophic climate judgment factor T G‑year If the corresponding catastrophic climate judgment conditions are met, the early warning conditions are met, otherwise the early warning conditions are not met; S4, early warning implementation. The invention is suitable for rapid early warning of large-scale moraine lake outburst disasters in alpine mountainous areas.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of early warning of geological disasters, in particular to a method for early warning of ice avalanche-type moraine lake outburst disasters. Background technique [0002] Glacial lake outburst disaster is one of the special types of geological disasters in high-altitude mountainous areas. Secondary disasters such as catastrophic floods and debris flows caused by glacial lake outbursts pose a serious threat to the economic development and residents' safety in high-altitude mountain areas. The formation of glacial lake outburst disasters in alpine mountainous areas is different from the outburst mechanism of dammed lakes in general mountainous areas. The stability of the dam body is not only affected by topographic factors, but also by the destruction of the dam body structure caused by the melting of the ice inside the dam body, and the moraine. The impact of sudden ice avalanches, avalanches and landslides and aggrava...

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Problems solved by technology

[0008] 2. Comprehensive consideration of climate and terrain factors to give early warning of glacial lake collapse. Such methods often use accumulated temperature changes or short-duration temperature changes as the main meteorological judgment conditions, which cannot objectively reflect the climatic mechanism of glacier collapse near moraine lakes, and the early warning threshold is The fixed value does not meet the dynamic characteristics of the critical conditions of disaster occurrence in complex natural environments, and its applicability to early warning of glacial lake outburst disasters is very limited, such as:

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