The invention discloses a
moraine lake outburst susceptibility judgment method and application, and belongs to the field of
hydraulic engineering, and the method comprises the following steps: a, measuring basic parameters of a
moraine embankment and a
moraine lake, and estimating the volume of potential ice rock collapse or
landslide mass entering the moraine lake and the surge
wave height and surge
wave velocity before the surge is spread to the moraine embankment; b, the
water level rising height caused by surges is calculated; c, judging whether the
water level of the moraine lake exceeds the downstream slope or the overflow channel after surging; d, calculating the
shear stress of the surge on the downstream slope or the overflow channel; and e, judging the susceptibility grade of moraine lake outburst based on the judgment result of whether the
water level exceeds or not and the
shear stress. According to the method,
coupling analysis is carried out on the volume of substances entering the lake, excited surge characteristics, dam structure parameters and water level changes for the first time, the limitation that qualitative evaluation is carried out only depending on a
single factor or a few factors in the past is broken through, the accuracy of moraine lake outburst susceptibility judgment is greatly improved, and the applicability is enhanced.