Damage prediction method and device for energy system, equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention provides a damage prediction method and device for an energy system, equipment and a storage medium, and aims at mining time-space characteristics of typhoon wind speed through typhoon historical data and calculating wind speed factors under different time-space conditions to obtain a typhoon attenuation rule. And then, according to the wind speed factor, the predicted typhoon intensity and the vulnerability curve of the component, calculating the component failure rate of the integrated energy system under different time-space conditions. On the basis, the damage probability is proposed, and the damage probability under different time and space is calculated according to historical typhoon data so as to budget the damage probability under the current predicted typhoon intensity. According to the damage prediction method of the energy system provided by the invention, the uncertainty in the energy system is fully considered, the uncertainty is dealt with by integrating the flexibility of historical data in the energy system, and the obtained planning result can effectively deal with the uncertain fluctuation in the system, so that the prediction of the damage condition is more accurate and reliable.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of disaster prevention, and in particular relates to a damage prediction method, device, equipment and storage medium for an energy system. Background technique [0002] In recent years, the power network, natural gas transmission network and other energy systems have been frequently affected by low-probability-high-risk extreme disaster weather, causing serious damage to the energy network system, causing long-term and large-scale energy supply interruptions, and seriously affecting the normal society of society. production life. Therefore, it is particularly important to predict the damage to the energy system under disaster weather and provide a reliable basis for disaster prevention and mitigation. [0003] In RIES (Regional integrated energy system) regional integrated energy system disaster prediction, most of the existing prediction techniques use "N-k" to describe the uncertainty of the system to pr...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In order to solve the problem of being unable to accurately predict the damage in the prior art, the present invention provides a damage prediction method, device, equipment and storage medium for an energy system, which has the characteristics of being able to accurately predict the damage of the energy system, etc.

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