Adaptive Online Experimentation

Abstract

An adaptive online experimentation method and system is disclosed for more effectively and efficiently determining and conducting information gathering and evaluations associated with computer-based applications. The adaptive online experimentation process integrates decision analysis, value of information analysis, design of experiment models, and the inferencing of gathered information, including experimental results. The experimental results may include behaviors of users of a computer-based system. The process enables an automatic, adaptive, closed-loop process for attaining additional information and assimilating the attained information into the decision model.

Description

CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS [0001] The present application is a continuation of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 11 / 329,722, entitled “Adaptive decision process,” filed on Jan. 10, 2006.FIELD OF INVENTION [0002] This invention relates to decision processes and, more particularly, to processes and associated methods and computer-based programs in which probabilistic inferencing and experimental design are applied to support decision processes. BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION [0003] Many decisions are influenced by some element of uncertainty. It is often valuable to take actions to gather information that may, at least in part, resolve uncertainties associated with a decision. Some calculation methods associated with determining the value of perfect or imperfect information are known from prior art. For example, the application of decision tree techniques may enable the derivation of expected values of information associated with an information gathering action. These methods...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

These methods typically require significant manual modeling efforts.

And, in the prior art, a limited ability to automatically conduct experimental or information gather actions is known, but the application is invariably constrained by the requirement of human intervention to interpret interim results and adjust the experimentation accordingly.

Thus, in the prior art, each of the steps of determining expected value of information, of experimental design, of conducting experimentation, and of performing statistical or probabilistic inferencing from new information generated by experimentation, requires significant human intervention.

Furthermore, in prior art processes, there does not exist an automatic feedback loop from the inferencing from new information step to the value of information and experimental design steps.

This introduces significant bottlenecks in addressing and resolving uncertainties associated with decisions efficiently and effectively.

This deficiency of the prior art processes and systems represents a particularly significant economic penalty in situations in which large amounts of relevant information is already available, or can be gathered rapidly.

However, manual bottlenecks may effectively limit the actually attainable throughput of such experimental infrastructure, and, more generally, limit the most effective use of available historical information.

The economic penalties associated with prior art decision processes are particularly acute in business processes such as product and / or service research and development, for which the manual interventions required in decision processes diminish both the efficiency and the effectiveness (measured in both quality and timeliness) of the decision making.

Images