Spare part demand forecast method based on in-service lift estimation

Abstract

The present invention discloses an in-service life evaluation based spare part demand forecasting method. The present invention uses the historical record of changing parts and components during equipment running process to establish a statistic model and evaluate the life of a spare part under the current in-service condition; spare part demand function is defined according to the evaluation value of in-service life and practical service life, and the spare parts demand total quantity of a plurality of sets of equipment within certain rang of time is forecasted further. The method combines the spare part life evaluation with practical service condition closely, improves the accuracy for forecasting the spare part demand, is applicable to the maintenance instruction of frequently changed parts and components at the equipment and has important meaning for the enterprise to ensure the supply of the spare part and reduce the spare part stock.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of operation and maintenance of mechanical equipment, relates to a production enterprise spare parts inventory control and management technology, and further relates to a spare parts demand prediction method based on in-service life evaluation. Background technique [0002] In the maintenance work of mechanical equipment, in order to restore the performance and precision of the equipment, it is necessary to use spare parts to replace the worn out parts. Enterprises store a certain number of spare parts in advance in the warehouse to ensure the smooth progress of maintenance work, but the inventory of spare parts will occupy working capital and increase production costs. Therefore, forecasting the demand for spare parts is very important for enterprise equipment management. [0003] Commonly used spare parts demand prediction methods include: direct calculation method, comparison method and statistical method. The dire...

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Problems solved by technology

The direct calculation method and the comparison method rely on subjective experience, and cannot comprehensively consider various factors affecting the actual spare parts loss, and the predicted results are often far from the actual needs.

The results of the statistical method are relatively close to the facts, but the processing object is the inventory consumption data of spare parts, which is only indirectly related to the running loss of spare parts on the equipment, so it is easily interfered by other factors, and the prediction results cannot scientifically and effectively guide the inventory and procurement of spare parts

[0004] Due to the defects of the above method, the forecast error of spare parts demand is large, affecting the progress of equipment maintenance or occupying a large amount of enterprise funds

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