Spare part demand forecast method based on in-service lift estimation

A technology of demand forecasting and life assessment, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve the problems of being easily interfered by other factors, occupying enterprise funds, and large error in spare parts demand forecasting, so as to achieve reliable forecasting The effect of improved performance and improved accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2008-12-10
XI AN JIAOTONG UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

The direct calculation method and the comparison method rely on subjective experience, and cannot comprehensively consider various factors affecting the actual spare parts loss, and the predicted results are often far from the actual needs.
The results of the statistical method are relatively close to the facts, but the processing object is the inventory consumption data of spare parts, which is only indirectly

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  • Spare part demand forecast method based on in-service lift estimation
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  • Spare part demand forecast method based on in-service lift estimation

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Embodiment Construction

[0026] refer to figure 1 As shown, the horizontal axis represents the service time, and the vertical axis represents the failure probability. According to the central limit theorem, the probability of components failing to be replaced during equipment operation conforms to a normal distribution. In a fixed service position, the probability of a component reaching the average service time is the largest, and the farther away from the average service time, the smaller the probability. In practical applications, a certain time value shorter than the average service time is often used as the safe service time. After the spare parts are in service and reach the safe service time, spare parts need to be prepared in advance for replacement, resulting in the demand for spare parts.

[0027] refer to figure 2 As shown, the horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents the spare parts reserve. The ideal spare parts reserve changes in a "wave" manner. There is a ce...

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Abstract

The present invention discloses an in-service life evaluation based spare part demand forecasting method. The present invention uses the historical record of changing parts and components during equipment running process to establish a statistic model and evaluate the life of a spare part under the current in-service condition; spare part demand function is defined according to the evaluation value of in-service life and practical service life, and the spare parts demand total quantity of a plurality of sets of equipment within certain rang of time is forecasted further. The method combines the spare part life evaluation with practical service condition closely, improves the accuracy for forecasting the spare part demand, is applicable to the maintenance instruction of frequently changed parts and components at the equipment and has important meaning for the enterprise to ensure the supply of the spare part and reduce the spare part stock.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of operation and maintenance of mechanical equipment, relates to a production enterprise spare parts inventory control and management technology, and further relates to a spare parts demand prediction method based on in-service life evaluation. Background technique [0002] In the maintenance work of mechanical equipment, in order to restore the performance and precision of the equipment, it is necessary to use spare parts to replace the worn out parts. Enterprises store a certain number of spare parts in advance in the warehouse to ensure the smooth progress of maintenance work, but the inventory of spare parts will occupy working capital and increase production costs. Therefore, forecasting the demand for spare parts is very important for enterprise equipment management. [0003] Commonly used spare parts demand prediction methods include: direct calculation method, comparison method and statistical method. The dire...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/00G06F19/00
Inventor 张庆徐光华刘弹
Owner XI AN JIAOTONG UNIV
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