WEB public opinion trend forecasting method based on optimal model

Abstract

The invention discloses a WEB public opinion trend forecasting method based on optimal model. The basic thought of the method is to firstly classify historical public opinion events to obtain several categories of opinion events, secondly clustering the time series plot of events in each obtained category to obtain sub-categories and finally obtaining the optimal model of each sub-category while ensuring the sum of mean-square errors is least to obtain the optimal model of each main category. When given an event to be predicted, the predicted event is classified and the optimal models obtained by early training to the category of the event are selected for matching, thus the model which is more suitable for the development trend of the event and the change proportion in matching can be selected; and inverse transformation is performed to the selected models according to the obtained change proportion so as to obtain the long-term development trend of the predicted event. Therefore, the defect that the existing network forecasting method can not forecast the inflection point can be overcome, the government and the supervision department can adopt timely and effective measures and the effects of network supervision can be better realized.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to intelligent information prediction technology, and more specifically, to a technology for predicting the development trend of Internet public opinion. Background technique [0002] Internet public opinion [0003] With the rapid development of the Internet, Internet media, as a new form of information dissemination, has penetrated into people's daily life, and the public's speech activity on the Internet has also reached an unprecedented level. Whether it is a major domestic or international event, it can immediately spread on the Internet and arouse great public attention and heated discussions, thereby generating huge pressure from public opinion, reaching the point where no department or institution can ignore it. It can be said that the Internet has become a distribution center for ideological and cultural information and an amplifier of public opinion. [0004] Internet public opinion is the public's highly influ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, when these forecasting techniques are used for long-term forecasting, the increase of uncertain factors over time makes the forecast results deviate greatly, and it is impossible to detect the inflection point of the trend development in time, which leads to the inability of the government and regulatory agencies to take timely measures. Effective preventive measures to better realize the effectiveness of network supervision

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