WEB public opinion trend forecasting method based on optimal model

An optimal model and trend forecasting technology, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as large deviations in forecast results, and achieve the effect of good network supervision and realization of network supervision

Inactive Publication Date: 2010-09-08
UNIV OF ELECTRONICS SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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Problems solved by technology

However, when these forecasting techniques are used for long-term forecasting, the increase of uncertain factors over time makes the forecast results deviate greatly, and it is impossible to detect the inflection poi...

Method used

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  • WEB public opinion trend forecasting method based on optimal model
  • WEB public opinion trend forecasting method based on optimal model
  • WEB public opinion trend forecasting method based on optimal model

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specific example

[0071] For further understanding of the method for WEB public opinion trend prediction of the present invention, we give a specific example below:

[0072] Step 1: Analyze the URL characteristics of the forums of several mainstream websites such as Sina, Netease, Sohu, Maopu, Google, etc. and grab the webpages, and save the information files and related data information to the local database;

[0073] Step 2: After clustering and classifying these information documents, select a public health document set from these information documents. These public health event document sets include hand, foot and mouth disease, bird flu, measles, cholera, and Guangyuan orange Documentation of the big teeny incident, fake milk powder and other incidents;

[0074] Step 3: Establish the time series of the required parameters for each selected event belonging to the public health category. In this example, we use the time series of the more authoritative Google trends to verify our method;

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Abstract

The invention discloses a WEB public opinion trend forecasting method based on optimal model. The basic thought of the method is to firstly classify historical public opinion events to obtain several categories of opinion events, secondly clustering the time series plot of events in each obtained category to obtain sub-categories and finally obtaining the optimal model of each sub-category while ensuring the sum of mean-square errors is least to obtain the optimal model of each main category. When given an event to be predicted, the predicted event is classified and the optimal models obtained by early training to the category of the event are selected for matching, thus the model which is more suitable for the development trend of the event and the change proportion in matching can be selected; and inverse transformation is performed to the selected models according to the obtained change proportion so as to obtain the long-term development trend of the predicted event. Therefore, the defect that the existing network forecasting method can not forecast the inflection point can be overcome, the government and the supervision department can adopt timely and effective measures and the effects of network supervision can be better realized.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to intelligent information prediction technology, and more specifically, to a technology for predicting the development trend of Internet public opinion. Background technique [0002] Internet public opinion [0003] With the rapid development of the Internet, Internet media, as a new form of information dissemination, has penetrated into people's daily life, and the public's speech activity on the Internet has also reached an unprecedented level. Whether it is a major domestic or international event, it can immediately spread on the Internet and arouse great public attention and heated discussions, thereby generating huge pressure from public opinion, reaching the point where no department or institution can ignore it. It can be said that the Internet has become a distribution center for ideological and cultural information and an amplifier of public opinion. [0004] Internet public opinion is the public's highly influ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/30
Inventor 高辉傅彦王沙沙
Owner UNIV OF ELECTRONICS SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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