Method for predicting service life of product by accelerated degradation testing based on degenerate distribution non-stationary time series analysis

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting service life of a product by an accelerated degradation testing based on degradation distribution non-stationary time series analysis. The method comprises the following steps of: 1, acquisition and preprocessing of test data; 2, parameter estimation of degradation distribution; 3, time series modeling of degradation distribution parameters; 4, accelerated degradation modeling based on the degradation distribution; and 5, service life prediction based on degradation distribution. The method can macroscopically describe degradation statistical regulation of all samples under accelerated stress, overall analyze the time series of the degradation distribution in an accelerated degradation process, can extrapolate the degradation distribution under the accelerated stress to normal stress to obtain product reliability reflecting the product accelerated degradation random process volatility regulation and service life relationship prediction, improve the credibility on estimation result of service life prediction and reliability, and save more time and is more efficient compared with performance degradation prediction under normal stress level.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an accelerated degradation test life prediction and reliability evaluation method, belonging to the technical field of accelerated test evaluation. Background technique [0002] The emergence of more and more long-life and high-reliability products makes product life and reliability evaluation more difficult. Predicting product life and reliability based on product performance degradation information has become an effective way. In order to evaluate the reliability of these products for which failure data is difficult to obtain but performance degradation data can be obtained, a degradation test method has emerged. [0003] At present, there are two main ideas for performance degradation prediction: [0004] 1. Each sample function of the stochastic process in which the amount of performance degradation changes with time is called the degradation trajectory, and the prediction is made based on the degradation trajectory. Thi...

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Problems solved by technology

[0023] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the problem that the existing performance degradation prediction method based on the degradation quantity distribution is not comprehensive enough to describe the random process of the statistical data of the degradation test, and the existing performance degradation prediction method based on the time series analysis of the degradation quantity distribution is difficult to be directly applied For the problems of life prediction and reliability evaluation of accelerated degradation test products, the technical means based on non-stationary time series analysis of degradation distribution is adopted to achieve the prediction of product life and reliability that is more consistent with the actual situation of the project through the prediction of macroscopic statistical characteristics of accelerated degradation test data. Technical Effects of Reliability Evaluation

That is, the overall trend of performance degradation is irreversible

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