Method for predicting service life of product by accelerated degradation testing based on degenerate distribution non-stationary time series analysis

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting service life of a product by an accelerated degradation testing based on degradation distribution non-stationary time series analysis. The method comprises the following steps of: 1, acquisition and preprocessing of test data; 2, parameter estimation of degradation distribution; 3, time series modeling of degradation distribution parameters; 4, accelerated degradation modeling based on the degradation distribution; and 5, service life prediction based on degradation distribution. The method can macroscopically describe degradation statistical regulation of all samples under accelerated stress, overall analyze the time series of the degradation distribution in an accelerated degradation process, can extrapolate the degradation distribution under the accelerated stress to normal stress to obtain product reliability reflecting the product accelerated degradation random process volatility regulation and service life relationship prediction, improve the credibility on estimation result of service life prediction and reliability, and save more time and is more efficient compared with performance degradation prediction under normal stress level.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an accelerated degradation test life prediction and reliability evaluation method, belonging to the technical field of accelerated test evaluation. Background technique [0002] The emergence of more and more long-life and high-reliability products makes product life and reliability evaluation more difficult. Predicting product life and reliability based on product performance degradation information has become an effective way. In order to evaluate the reliability of these products for which failure data is difficult to obtain but performance degradation data can be obtained, a degradation test method has emerged. [0003] At present, there are two main ideas for performance degradation prediction: [0004] 1. Each sample function of the stochastic process in which the amount of performance degradation changes with time is called the degradation trajectory, and the prediction is made based on the degradation trajectory. Thi...

Images